TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$726,861
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$761,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $726,861 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,342 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbcb4…b811backed No19c16,563$3,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,342.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+414.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes77c15,337$11,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,796.921145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed No74c12,118$8,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,182.6212264.8%79 W · 43 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd495…248ebacked No18c10,972$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,997.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bef…9a71backed No24c10,366$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,915.872195.2%20 W · 1 L+6.7wins+0.32per pick63cpaid+73.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xee17…6ea1backed No20c10,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,0006016.7%10 W · 50 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b15…9260backed No26c9,102$2,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,691.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+277.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4f…463cbacked Yes73c9,004$6,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,587.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a79…b1a8backed No19c8,892$1,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,207.433100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+162.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked No26c8,386$2,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,176.621816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No25c7,948$1,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,992.331323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x820c…4841backed Yes79c7,619$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x690d…dee3backed No24c7,049$1,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,371.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+320.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24f0…7ad4backed No29c6,986$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,986.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+74.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c58…01aebacked No18c6,150$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,045.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+178.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1690…8c4dbacked Yes79c6,076$4,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,82010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bab…4f17backed No21c6,034$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,761.113235.6%47 W · 85 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a55…b632backed No22c5,920$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,606.823619.4%7 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b60…f259backed Yes76c5,755$4,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,35010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac9a…7ccebacked Yes74c5,510$4,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,101.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes76c5,325$4,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,055.785549.1%27 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed No25c5,000$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,749.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9915…3704backed No27c4,991$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,629.631471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+53.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2106…4deabacked No21c4,872$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,831.599761.9%60 W · 37 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e59…a17cbacked No54c4,763$2,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,202.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aab…3b61backed Yes73c4,461$3,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,238.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0da0…3c77backed No24c4,453$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,375.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+313.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f3c…434fbacked No23c4,422$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4222100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+190.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdce0…5ba0backed No14c4,197$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,598.164613%6 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes73c4,186$3,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,042.581163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5e4…6c1cbacked Yes5c4,109$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc31d…4ebebacked No23c4,050$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,125.761625%4 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+88.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7d6…1612backed Yes80c4,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb87d…85f3backed No26c3,877$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,868.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes75c3,782$2,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,826.9917226.7%46 W · 126 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes49c3,615$1,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,758.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No18c3,610$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,958.7176137.6%286 W · 475 L+35.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f95…7c6dbacked No22c3,485$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,734.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe82c…dadabacked Yes74c3,440$2,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1eb…7afebacked No17c3,319$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,770.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+505.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabf1…98cbbacked No36c3,173$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,017.58742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6765…fa0dbacked Yes73c3,139$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b16…0dc4backed Yes79c3,136$2,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,477.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes75c3,065$2,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,298.8640%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes68c3,000$2,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0361118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick44cpaid-61%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x53fc…bce0backed Yes79c3,000$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,37010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed Yes75c3,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x820b…f7f4backed No24c3,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,289.97520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d2f…1d1ebacked No22c2,996$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,323.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+345.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No20c2,948$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,364.444427.3%12 W · 32 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe408…232bbacked No24c2,851$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,176.171520%3 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Yes78c2,756$2,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,156.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No26c2,753$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025.1580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+64.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No21c2,726$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+143.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x991b…f19abacked No23c2,645$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,042.07633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+57.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes76c2,571$1,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,952.893050%15 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes70c2,494$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.8118941.3%78 W · 111 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cee…7a95backed No20c2,469$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,969.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+393.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes71c2,459$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.982035%7 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b62…ad6cbacked Yes80c2,454$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f2f…98c8backed Yes80c2,399$1,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,913.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d7b…6e23backed No21c2,344$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.332100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+197.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e89…4173backed Yes43c2,306$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x038f…4535backed No28c2,275$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,641.981338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick18cpaid+70.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed No21c2,262$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,781.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+370.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes76c2,243$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,698.21580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe08e…1d61backed Yes74c2,216$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,63910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes66c2,200$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.1967442.7%288 W · 386 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x057d…4d1fbacked No23c2,064$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.371145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x352f…586fbacked No25c2,060$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+101.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…5790backed No25c2,026$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,526.04560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+109.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf61f…3b3dbacked Yes49c2,023$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes75c2,019$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09da…6dffbacked No22c2,005$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.032025%5 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+39.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb0…0152backed No25c2,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes43c2,000$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.981668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed No20c1,953$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,556.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+392.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95f6…0b51backed No27c1,945$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81ea…668bbacked No18c1,945$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,595.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2d…f033backed No21c1,929$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,528.57580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+73%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08cb…3497backed Yes79c1,904$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x632d…d8ddbacked Yes1c1,885$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No31c1,877$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.343834.2%13 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-24.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x639c…b491backed Yes79c1,845$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes77c1,807$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.111136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab95…c8cfbacked No31c1,770$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked No26c1,663$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+285.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdd6…23f8backed Yes78c1,656$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Yes72c1,647$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.52934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-42.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1d1…1e37backed No20c1,560$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+151.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f21…3d6ebacked No36c1,519$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.44714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8506…10eabacked No26c1,500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1102100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+156.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x087c…4a76backed No19c1,500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+28.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1f6e…c8a0backed Yes74c1,500$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x037d…161bbacked No27c1,496$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+273.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No21c1,432$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.54520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283c…a68fbacked Yes73c1,414$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb29e…fd62backed Yes77c1,403$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes20c1,400$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2803522.9%8 W · 27 L+5.5wins+0.16per pick7cpaid+324.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x95e5…0920backed No22c1,395$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+364.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.