TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0a55…b632

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
38
Categories scored
3
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Earnings, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Earnings at 53 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 6, 2025, EST3619.4%7 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ConocoPhillips (COP) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$15.23
Will Teleflex (TFX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$19.61
Will Datadog (DDOG) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$64.99
Will Frontdoor (FTDR) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$38
Will Charles River Laboratories (CRL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$69.99
Will New York Times (NYT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Pathward Financial (CASH) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$97.33
Will Amazon.com (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$454.93
Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$376.62
Will Mastercard (MA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+566.3%+$1,919.47
Will Carvana (CVNA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+595.2%+$1,092.2
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$574Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$574.17
Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.81
Will Evercore (EVR) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$160.9
Will MSCI (MSCI) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.43
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$349.75
Will PayPal Holdings (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$249.96
Will Procter & Gamble (PG) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$160
Will General Dynamics (GD) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will SS&C Technologies Holdings (SSNC) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$92.2
Will Intel (INTC) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.13
Will T-Mobile US (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$394.45
Will International Business Machines (IBM) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$161.13
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,313Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+350.8%+$4,606.82
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+227.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+227.4%+$242.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$86.46
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.