Earnings · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x822d87248479fc05e7f3b0b0e85cdec9ef3bfd90bc82c4ad46693cf25ad63118
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 22c | 8,760$1,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,969.25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 74c | 4,109$3,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.48 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 76c | 3,251$2,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.92 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a55…b632backed No | 19c | 3,089$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.17 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…6e23backed Yes | 79c | 2,279$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +197.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked No | 24c | 1,429$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.34 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6799…1047backed No | 14c | 1,030$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed Yes | 76c | 810$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 19c | 793.21$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.08 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked No | 20c | 749.95$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…9b8ebacked No | 5c | 674.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 607.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 18c | 555.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed No | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…ede8backed Yes | 80c | 464.14$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 63cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52a6…db9cbacked No | 22c | 452.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 15c | 373.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 20c | 351.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked No | 10c | 345.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc2…ac7dbacked No | 24c | 333.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…178dbacked No | 17c | 327.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…c603backed Yes | 79c | 319.72$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 11c | 299.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…af06backed Yes | 79c | 286.55$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed No | 12c | 256.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 22c | 249.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5397…736bbacked No | 18c | 249.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…8f06backed No | 21c | 248.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 6c | 235.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 22c | 190$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x935e…f456backed Yes | 80c | 187$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 80c | 185.49$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed No | 6c | 181.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 157.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 13c | 156.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 9c | 136.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd393…03c9backed Yes | 77c | 129.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…c855backed Yes | 77c | 129.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x903c…57d8backed Yes | 79c | 126.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed No | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc2…ff8bbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 22c | 108$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55b5…d7adbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…744bbacked No | 20c | 97.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa137…06d7backed No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 14c | 79.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 79c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 20c | 61.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 79c | 50.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…591bbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +32%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…755dbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6c…6a61backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…9226backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed Yes | 75c | 38.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7a…84b1backed Yes | 80c | 37.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…e35bbacked Yes | 74c | 33.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…fc71backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 40 | 87.5%35 W · 5 L | +7.6wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 47c | 29.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8acd…664abacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5908…cbc1backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +92%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…506cbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e54…8ba8backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…6fc4backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 75cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d7…b2acbacked Yes | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 56c | 24.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…8aacbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7762…dbbebacked Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…a4fdbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.