TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6799…1047

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
35
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Earnings, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Earnings at 58 out of 100; worst Middle East at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Earnings Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT2240.9%9 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+122.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Earnings — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SoundHound AI (SOUN) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+438.5%+$480.32
Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+98%+$97.96
Will Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+39.4%+$39.4
Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+25%+$25
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+508.6%+$254.29
Will AppLovin (APP) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$71.4
Will Lyft (LYFT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Shopify (SHOP) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+900%+$270
Will Uber Technologies (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$67
Will Palantir Technologies (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Amazon.com (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$138.4
Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.99
Will Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$187.64
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+967.6%+$1,087.57
Will Carvana (CVNA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+635.7%+$475.61
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$143.99
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$150.3
Will PayPal Holdings (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$140.2
Will SS&C Technologies Holdings (SSNC) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$124
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+391.3%+$821.36
All 22 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$258Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$64.5
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$38.89
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+26%+$74.87
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$35.14
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+28.2%+$28.21
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$141.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,627Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,627.38
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.