TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,451
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,342

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,451 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes70c1,910$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.1326350.2%132 W · 131 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf44…4d45backed Yes69c1,807$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.021478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick72cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5400…1342backed No38c1,591$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.281154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+41.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc09…9024backed No25c1,455$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.314866.7%32 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+28%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes52c1,387$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.7676137.6%286 W · 475 L+35.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked No26c972.76$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.9247138.6%182 W · 289 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No34c871.57$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.81717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-54.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed Yes75c800$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+117.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9958…36b9backed Yes75c796.08$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes73c572.67$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.679960.6%60 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ef…7690backed Yes73c518.86$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.098129.6%24 W · 57 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No27c512.66$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.6620729.5%61 W · 146 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6a…2dcfbacked No31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes76c402$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.483429.4%10 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-58.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked No26c276.92$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9217137.4%64 W · 107 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes76c273.75$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4467442.7%288 W · 386 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f0f…4f31backed No28c249.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7035635.1%125 W · 231 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb102…c73dbacked No27c214.49$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.917731.2%24 W · 53 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd3d…684dbacked No38c209.59$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8011925.2%30 W · 89 L-7.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-6.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes59c208.11$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.816914.5%10 W · 59 L-8.8wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-62%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No29c206.44$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.26927.5%19 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c83…0f55backed Yes64c200.31$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes64c198.76$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.133053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No31c191.88$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6329024.1%70 W · 220 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes76c180$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.215530.3%47 W · 108 L-20.2wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-43.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes72c174.7$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3515564.5%100 W · 55 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed No55c168.89$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1820331.5%64 W · 139 L-14.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x370b…5f2cbacked No30c166.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick36cpaid+51.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c06…67b6backed Yes72c158.33$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.835632.1%18 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked No67c150$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45df…ad59backed Yes70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.861250%6 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-30.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6799…1047backed Yes72c139.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.42240.9%9 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+122.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes73c137.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.24845.8%22 W · 26 L-8.2wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-23.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes23c132$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.643815.8%6 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa195…24fcbacked Yes38c131.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.862835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0529…8909backed Yes74c125.07$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.522286.4%19 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick75cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No24c118.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6857939%226 W · 353 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9077…9c3fbacked No31c117$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.782231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+55.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes75c111$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.75650%3 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf30d…d71fbacked No38c110.38$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes49c107$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.574211.9%5 W · 37 L-6.1wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-47.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3ac8…ddd5backed Yes68c104.31$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7552…5845backed Yes70c104$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77a0…7fd7backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbae7…80fcbacked No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.53938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26a4…5593backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406752.2%35 W · 32 L-8.3wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-21.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4be9…a1a7backed Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8143…9698backed No42c98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.43944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc7…61f1backed No31c97.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12dc…5c52backed No31c96.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+211.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa802…23dfbacked No27c94.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510821.3%23 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes55c89.85$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.621573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+44%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b59…e6babacked No38c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb68b…e6d1backed Yes62c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc832…ed2bbacked No25c77.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.49714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No31c77.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.636040%24 W · 36 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+39.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b97…36b7backed No32c76.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.718772.4%63 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23eb…c516backed No22c73.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.07650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19c9…9171backed Yes73c71.1$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8167…c580backed Yes31c70$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.21580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+65.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x215a…e220backed Yes78c69.76$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.35560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+273.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed No37c69.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.648267.1%55 W · 27 L+11.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+18.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x64d7…4d00backed Yes73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4921357.3%122 W · 91 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.574459.1%26 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x804d…5554backed Yes73c62.36$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71be…61a0backed Yes66c61.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.06977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes29c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.43321.2%7 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.65612.5%7 W · 49 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6967…7f28backed No38c53.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203724.3%9 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x375e…e862backed Yes47c52.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.722352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f80…d0d5backed Yes74c52.7$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152989.7%26 W · 3 L+7.2wins+0.25per pick65cpaid+47.8%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked No28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.751833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-53.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Yes73c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.54266.7%28 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42f7…e2e5backed Yes72c49.69$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…ee3fbacked Yes53c47.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.46666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e8…b9bcbacked Yes73c43.42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.59977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick74cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed No32c43.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.971338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cbf…1ec6backed Yes73c41.37$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd607…838bbacked Yes31c40.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.89540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b1…799abacked Yes74c40.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x604e…f1cdbacked Yes72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes50c39.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9230315.2%46 W · 257 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes61c37.95$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.821861%133 W · 85 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x45db…8f65backed Yes73c34.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.251936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…4f8cbacked Yes74c33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f19…bf1ebacked Yes64c31.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.21275%9 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd571…ece9backed Yes46c30.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.42450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Yes56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.21154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1e…53e3backed Yes73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick65cpaid-47.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x75d1…5f3ebacked Yes67c29.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.93450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes64c29.69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1756…c84dbacked Yes73c28.75$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.762166.7%14 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa24b…752abacked Yes70c28.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.45333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b30…2209backed Yes74c28.2$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8278…ef14backed Yes71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.172166.7%14 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb62f…6a2bbacked Yes72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f82…1788backed Yes73c27.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.