Earnings · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd945f174433f4bd99050fc692d710ebc3c9d8e55997b4a38a9039630da3cce43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 11c | 7,956$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.89 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05db…3130backed No | 15c | 6,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 2c | 5,853$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa973…f0f6backed No | 37c | 4,078$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 18c | 3,201$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.19 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…e5eebacked No | 18c | 2,616$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a55…b632backed No | 16c | 2,377$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.62 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed No | 11c | 2,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…053fbacked No | 12c | 1,765$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.75 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 80c | 1,650$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9758…caafbacked No | 18c | 1,607$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 15c | 1,584$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.73 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 13c | 1,483$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.16 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked No | 7c | 1,476$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked No | 11c | 1,100$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 976.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.97 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked No | 15c | 951.04$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1329…0b4bbacked No | 12c | 858.32$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 19c | 799.98$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 6c | 790.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked No | 13c | 765.4$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked No | 16c | 713$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…5ba0backed No | 11c | 700$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…7662backed No | 19c | 600$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.28 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…0a63backed No | 3c | 544.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b88…19c8backed No | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602f…c1b9backed No | 18c | 489.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 14c | 470.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked No | 15c | 445.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd428…bdbfbacked No | 12c | 402.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc2…ac7dbacked No | 19c | 375.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 9c | 350$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 12c | 322$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf462…3a4dbacked No | 11c | 299.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6799…1047backed No | 15c | 299.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 12c | 289.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…a464backed No | 20c | 288.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…492fbacked No | 14c | 285.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 13c | 280$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0264…91acbacked No | 18c | 274.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 268.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed No | 16c | 253.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked No | 14c | 249.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 15c | 210.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 20c | 206.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02ac…ef52backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…4535backed No | 15c | 199.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7496…fe5cbacked No | 14c | 191.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389f…0c1dbacked No | 16c | 187.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 17c | 170$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30ff…dd6ebacked No | 18c | 169.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 15c | 166$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.1 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79a…6052backed No | 13c | 157.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +160.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 77c | 156$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…5c9dbacked No | 13c | 155$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8e…d9dfbacked No | 12c | 139.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699e…55bcbacked Yes | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…7811backed No | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3d…bbb8backed No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked No | 13c | 112.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 10c | 107.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…0e24backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…8486backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…07b5backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x929f…036cbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0859…7aacbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…041fbacked No | 13c | 92.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…0a49backed No | 24c | 81.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d5…1f99backed No | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a69…dbc4backed Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…75c1backed Yes | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3857…6605backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…9226backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…fc71backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 40 | 87.5%35 W · 5 L | +7.6wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…1bb6backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…0013backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…99b2backed Yes | 78c | 24.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…0e78backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.