Earnings · resolved market
Will Lyft (LYFT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7ad64e3807a2715e3a68d9b4d2173e427ef68b77ce29ce1a0c9f46db87e5f5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 75c | 677.83$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.1 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 15c | 465.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf202…34fbbacked No | 26c | 379.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 19c | 352.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 21c | 305.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 14cpaid | +415.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…5652backed No | 15c | 275.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6799…1047backed No | 32c | 248.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…1116backed Yes | 79c | 246.02$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…8ef9backed No | 18c | 229.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…8355backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 19c | 199.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 19c | 185.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 21c | 146.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 67c | 144.32$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 27c | 140.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x903c…57d8backed No | 16c | 126.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b6…48cabacked No | 18c | 109.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…3b88backed No | 34c | 101.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e72…b2febacked No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked No | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 67c | 81.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 76c | 77.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89fb…fdfabacked Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…b16cbacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 19c | 60.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed4…a52abacked Yes | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b01…7481backed No | 31c | 48.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 21c | 47.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 77c | 31.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8b…6fc5backed Yes | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…88bbbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 74c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…2aaebacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…c361backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.