Earnings · resolved market
Will PayPal Holdings (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4180735b2b0f5c83751da4a2a3adae259e29fd9212d771cf564636522a4bbca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 31c | 3,000$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -61%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a55…b632backed No | 17c | 1,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.96 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 69c | 1,369$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.81 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 74c | 1,287$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.37 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed No | 21c | 1,136$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 17c | 872.17$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.27 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 19c | 789.45$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6799…1047backed No | 18c | 779.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…d476backed No | 22c | 697.7$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…4535backed No | 19c | 627.29$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…4a1dbacked Yes | 65c | 581.54$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 2c | 572.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.89 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +324.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…7662backed No | 18c | 563.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 22c | 535.51$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.45 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Yes | 77c | 519.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed No | 15c | 499.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked No | 20c | 490$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 5c | 436.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 406.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed4…a52abacked No | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 21c | 385.35$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 21c | 381.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 22c | 351.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 79c | 331.77$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 19c | 328.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed No | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…816fbacked Yes | 72c | 243.47$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 20c | 216.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 20c | 215.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked No | 24c | 209.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b88…19c8backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked No | 21c | 199.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…2e0bbacked Yes | 65c | 195.29$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 79c | 160$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 155.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 74c | 147.73$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…65e8backed Yes | 71c | 142$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed No | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 73c | 117.91$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…8b4fbacked No | 25c | 117.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 72c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…e451backed Yes | 68c | 108.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5908…cbc1backed No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +92%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff7…3eb8backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…e979backed No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…9518backed Yes | 64c | 93.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…3bc0backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 23c | 83.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89d0…03c1backed No | 19c | 81.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 16c | 77.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…1230backed No | 18c | 74.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc104…a5c0backed Yes | 80c | 71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…75c1backed Yes | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 16c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…c36abacked No | 20c | 64.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed No | 21c | 60.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…8909backed Yes | 70c | 54.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…7786backed Yes | 79c | 51.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 78c | 50.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…8486backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5409…9dcdbacked No | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Yes | 78c | 35.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed Yes | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…9226backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked Yes | 66c | 27.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…0013backed Yes | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…f940backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…e7d8backed Yes | 74c | 21.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1995backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.