Earnings · resolved market
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86d09d45cd3e5b98107f21b2e7aa5660a4bff8c7c3b1eedc66eee64e0d6f285a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 12c | 3,918$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,430.9 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a55…b632backed No | 15c | 2,258$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.47 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…fb78backed No | 13c | 1,570$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +368.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 19c | 1,565$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.09 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed No | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.98 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6799…1047backed No | 9c | 1,200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.57 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked No | 20c | 1,178$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked No | 15c | 1,100$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.74 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…9b2ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,030$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…3595backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 6c | 999$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 2c | 982.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 6c | 833$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 6c | 833$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 10c | 499.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 14cpaid | +415.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 20c | 423.46$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 5c | 397.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.54 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 12c | 349.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.97 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 14c | 330.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.81 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 14c | 325.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.46 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…7ba1backed No | 12c | 316.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +170.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 12c | 299.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.98 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed No | 8c | 282.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 9c | 276.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.02 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 16c | 260.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.03 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 19c | 260$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 10c | 254.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.21 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 19c | 230.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.24 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…5ba0backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…7662backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5114…fa9ebacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.99 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…492fbacked No | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 8c | 182.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.16 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 169.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.77 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aba…af7cbacked Yes | 32c | 166$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1099…6524backed Yes | 80c | 161.5$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked No | 10c | 150$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe55c…8a38backed No | 7c | 149.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…9593backed No | 11c | 142.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.8 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcee…0f35backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…4535backed No | 14c | 120$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…22abbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…9226backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…506cbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 79c | 20.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf0…47e5backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.