Earnings · resolved market
Will AppLovin (APP) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfca66c1e69aa22101e65b0b32d5e22e36215a4350a23a68736f5843689f9eb77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 7c | 2,911$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.31 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 78c | 1,146$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.17 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 20c | 1,096$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.08 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 17c | 633.82$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.63 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Yes | 78c | 591.13$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.47 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 19c | 573.67$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.06 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 19c | 533.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.82 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8332…0c45backed No | 3c | 442.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4547backed No | 22c | 377.27$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6799…1047backed No | 20c | 355$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…f872backed No | 3c | 335.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 19c | 329.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 21c | 259.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea98…c85cbacked No | 5c | 234.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe986…437cbacked No | 5c | 229.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bf…ad8ebacked No | 5c | 226.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…2cb1backed No | 5c | 225.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 20c | 180$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 21c | 149.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 22c | 130.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 18c | 98.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…2454backed No | 21c | 96.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 17c | 73.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9b…578cbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7cd2backed Yes | 79c | 33.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…ddabbacked Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…c3acbacked Yes | 80c | 30.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…5270backed Yes | 78c | 27.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…693cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.