Earnings · resolved market
Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09692f40eeed2910ae4610d8caadc51f9dbd0dc67d850901eca81ecb556cef40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 14c | 3,975$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.99 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 11c | 2,054$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.71 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 11c | 1,414$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.39 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…4d32backed No | 13c | 1,077$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.45 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 8c | 1,018$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b3…246abacked Yes | 80c | 630$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…85e0backed No | 16c | 597.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…177fbacked No | 17c | 499.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 9c | 420.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 9c | 399.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 12c | 397.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825d…1633backed No | 9c | 388.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 10c | 371.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked No | 14c | 350.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…daecbacked No | 10c | 338.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 6c | 333.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 10c | 325.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 11c | 318.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 299.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 9c | 297.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 10c | 261.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 252.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…65a2backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +178%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 9c | 201.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed No | 11c | 199.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 11c | 199.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 16c | 185.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…d932backed No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81c…fb1cbacked No | 11c | 176.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…0bbabacked No | 11c | 163.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…95cabacked No | 18c | 158.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 12c | 139.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed No | 14c | 138.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6799…1047backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…0d14backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…bd9fbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…6006backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c14…10a2backed No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…aa24backed Yes | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a69…dbc4backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…dd00backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.