TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$145,387
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$147,112

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,387 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe71a…66ebbacked Yes15c18,700$2,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,8441100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+554.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95c1…d24ebacked No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f2…4b52backed No0c9,094$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1219…e791backed Yes39c4,999$1,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,068.613100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+84.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No14c3,573$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.282128.6%6 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick13cpaid+65.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes23c3,263$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,503.3476137.6%286 W · 475 L+35.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5882…387abacked Yes40c2,588$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,556.08580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b63…1147backed No74c2,023$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No58c2,010$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.491233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…be97backed No1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+45.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa294…52eabacked Yes32c1,942$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.752437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No69c1,783$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.25549.1%27 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12e2…36b0backed Yes52c1,736$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes26c1,602$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.9635635.1%125 W · 231 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes27c1,400$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.9967442.7%288 W · 386 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe056…8120backed No71c1,069$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.792462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+54.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes49c1,056$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.028267.1%55 W · 27 L+11.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+18.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf847…507cbacked Yes29c1,030$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.053100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+104%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86d5…11b6backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No71c999.93$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No74c987.02$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe382…f187backed No72c977.06$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bdd…6da4backed No62c935.1$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+252.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes28c928.46$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.331921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb28…3750backed Yes29c862.6$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+245%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked Yes28c800$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57621639.4%85 W · 131 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bed…6afabacked No65c771.31$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5400…1342backed No41c744.1$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.591154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+41.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes58c716.97$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.65580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c696.19$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.8618941.3%78 W · 111 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes22c599.99$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.9917226.7%46 W · 126 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x943b…fe84backed No68c588.12$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.72955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick71cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes42c571.42$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.4220742%87 W · 120 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73be…9a59backed Yes38c537.61$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.711050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+59.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes26c527.56$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.1731229.8%93 W · 219 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed No65c500$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes21c484.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+384.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes32c472.77$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.7646314.3%66 W · 397 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafc6…0454backed Yes21c466.58$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.581323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x665e…ea7ebacked No76c434.39$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x813c…6c92backed Yes36c420.67$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d2…177fbacked Yes20c409.68$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.772913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid+46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No72c403.17$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.496927.5%19 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cde…b97dbacked No66c400$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26440%0 W · 4 L-2.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x64d7…4d00backed Yes25c400$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30021357.3%122 W · 91 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c57…c8e6backed No66c393.39$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x288e…ec6abacked No60c364.82$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e41…b875backed Yes23c351.72$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.721241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes29c345.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.484845.8%22 W · 26 L-8.2wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-23.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xac7e…be9cbacked Yes31c327.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+227.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ef…7690backed No77c325.34$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2508129.6%24 W · 57 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed No44c320$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes36c306.08$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.46837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick11cpaid+215.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6799…1047backed Yes16c304.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.292240.9%9 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+122.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x521b…db60backed Yes35c300.91$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+41.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd39f…e84fbacked No7c300$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2270%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6718…e623backed No76c299.98$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf401…5cacbacked Yes26c299.98$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe381…3ba9backed Yes28c298.89$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.6825125.5%64 W · 187 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes31c295.21$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.683321.2%7 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c290.74$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.582138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92e3…926cbacked No75c290.24$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No64c288.32$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.156914.5%10 W · 59 L-8.8wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-62%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x344f…413bbacked No77c268.5$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid+112.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed No76c264.27$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56eb…2d13backed No61c256.82$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9c…6fddbacked No61c255.58$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes27c240$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.415530.3%47 W · 108 L-20.2wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-43.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes43c233.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+136.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed No63c224.79$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.424040%16 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+46.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fa…222bbacked Yes23c215.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+331.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes29c204.54$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.5129024.1%70 W · 220 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e96…a7e0backed No64c203.81$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf22f…7714backed No72c202.21$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed No50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid+90.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7515564.5%100 W · 55 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30c3…1331backed Yes24c200$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1524524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No77c200$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-59.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9226…56c8backed No62c199.99$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7c8…e8c0backed Yes20c199.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.99540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+142.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1539…33f2backed No79c199.98$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76c0…17b5backed Yes29c199.85$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+250.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0cf…20d4backed No68c197.16$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked No75c188.72$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+65.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca9…cfafbacked No68c186$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.630%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes27c180.23$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.6730315.2%46 W · 257 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd7c…454fbacked No62c175.46$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e79…bf7fbacked No74c166.93$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc648…af3dbacked No70c166.89$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e82…ce41backed Yes32c158.44$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+210.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d7a…95a4backed No64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No13c153$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.894912.2%6 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8047…7e9cbacked No80c150.44$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ae…8eb7backed No72c150$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…fc42backed No74c149.96$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff56…eea1backed No67c148.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed No68c147.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c146.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.8257939%226 W · 353 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x227c…6a34backed No80c140.94$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f23…90dbbacked No71c140.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-58.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.