Earnings · resolved market
Will Shopify (SHOP) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a14a5f8fac102b6e37face4df35b0447e7b25a4dee4296d18f03a1bef49cdb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 11c | 1,615$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.9 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…8ef9backed No | 7c | 861.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.97 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67df…772fbacked Yes | 60c | 843.47$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 7c | 654.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.33 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 13c | 600.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 19c | 445.3$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.6 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 5c | 434.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.72 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ba…697cbacked No | 14c | 425.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…316abacked No | 10c | 378.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +926.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 9c | 350$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 14cpaid | +415.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed No | 16c | 343.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.76 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.46per pick | 32cpaid | +681.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked No | 17c | 313.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.01 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6799…1047backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 7c | 300$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.35 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 16c | 285.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.12 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed No | 17c | 277.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…ca87backed No | 17c | 230.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +188.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…594ebacked No | 12c | 206.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 7c | 195.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.29 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 11c | 189.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.25 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 7c | 159.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.64 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.8 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 11c | 149.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.37 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…48c4backed No | 8c | 149.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +173.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 11c | 135.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.17 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…053fbacked No | 9c | 125.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.02 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…62d9backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.41per pick | 64cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked No | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.59 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e3…2151backed No | 15c | 99.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +545.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7b…e6b7backed No | 22c | 91.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +356.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 79c | 88.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…4413backed No | 14c | 70$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 26c | 63.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 79c | 24.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…0666backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…d65abacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.