TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,286,145
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,297,946

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,286,145 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,627 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed No3c519,129$13,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,681.951513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-68.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…3931backed Yes58c124,298$72,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,191.561643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes78c119,371$93,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,271.3214425.7%37 W · 107 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf020…3212backed No21c86,462$18,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,248.39540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No27c69,630$18,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,963.82540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick16cpaid+201.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4ea…62c5backed No13c67,690$9,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,116.011010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-79.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No28c60,470$17,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,176.69616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x714a…ab2fbacked No23c40,600$9,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,232.63666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7eff…7196backed Yes69c40,200$27,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,601.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d5…2884backed No6c40,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes68c39,118$26,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,585.27450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf5c…bf77backed No32c34,534$11,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,102.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9032…8717backed No31c34,453$10,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,774.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c14…f82bbacked Yes62c32,466$20,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,186.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2123…27a2backed Yes62c32,464$20,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,343.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No25c31,192$7,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,642.763435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4cb…ecb7backed Yes76c31,000$23,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,410.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed No7c29,011$2,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.65560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x471b…b18fbacked No26c27,995$7,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,210.84616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes68c26,983$18,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,622.311136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No33c25,474$8,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,368.624131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-21.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes76c22,405$17,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,301.56560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82a9…c9a1backed Yes73c20,599$15,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,462.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa96c…d1c7backed Yes78c20,000$15,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,340450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa169…bcb6backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes68c19,831$13,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,333.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-30.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes79c19,767$15,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,080.121546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc5…5a8dbacked Yes64c19,337$12,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,970.183100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+72.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes73c18,475$13,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,922.57650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No30c18,000$5,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,459.98742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+104.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd2f…7e70backed Yes31c17,324$5,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,923.7450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+42.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed Yes67c17,132$11,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,720.14812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked No38c17,088$6,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,426.06633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c44…fcd4backed Yes68c16,569$11,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,235.14650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed No0c15,196$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked No36c15,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76cf…9452backed Yes66c14,331$9,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,935.83450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes74c14,040$10,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6241145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3cc…447cbacked Yes71c14,015$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,015.35714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-80%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6305…9d0bbacked No38c13,998$5,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,35020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No28c13,391$3,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,749.034112.2%5 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-81.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa324…2032backed Yes78c13,372$10,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,994.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c94…00d0backed No0c13,340$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked No11c13,332$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.8570%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No19c13,006$2,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,458.851040%4 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+104.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb69c…6b19backed Yes76c12,969$9,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,074.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1437…acfebacked No5c12,900$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5811118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick9cpaid-51.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc78e…4718backed Yes75c12,699$9,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,123.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No29c12,244$3,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,606.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x936e…473fbacked No47c11,856$5,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,558.56520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-68.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes73c11,542$8,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,129.19450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x997d…5d15backed No16c11,519$1,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,826.29616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef18…158bbacked No22c10,818$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,379.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe89e…0600backed No25c10,777$2,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,739.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b4a…dff7backed No9c10,579$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed No42c10,355$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed No38c10,232$3,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,88810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa43d…00f4backed No27c10,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed No32c9,687$3,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,096.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xab1c…aaddbacked No34c9,622$3,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,312.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765d…dca3backed Yes70c9,483$6,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,850.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No39c9,418$3,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,651.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+52.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No37c9,000$3,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,329.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4310…37e1backed No38c8,933$3,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,355.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b4…6709backed No28c8,470$2,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400.573020%6 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe393…8364backed Yes73c8,164$5,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,229.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafcc…fb70backed No25c8,113$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed No4c8,055$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.22616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-61.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb57…0a46backed Yes63c8,051$5,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,939.25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4e6…4bd4backed Yes70c8,017$5,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,423.56666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed No24c8,004$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.58475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x951e…d394backed Yes66c8,000$5,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,719.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked No33c7,952$2,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,656.311050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f1…b762backed Yes78c7,700$6,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,697333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6791…0122backed No30c7,635$2,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,272.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7079…155dbacked No33c7,616$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f45…cabcbacked Yes56c7,500$4,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,315.91136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98c2…f85dbacked Yes79c7,436$5,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,556.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…d1e4backed No79c7,149$5,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,642.9160%0 W · 6 L-3.8wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No4c7,144$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x381e…9251backed Yes71c7,059$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,059.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-64.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked No36c6,959$2,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,509.071838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-35.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fa7…dddcbacked No43c6,946$2,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,971.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd920…61a9backed Yes79c6,603$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.09520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-74.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked No0c6,565$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes71c6,500$4,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46a1…2736backed No40c6,452$2,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,558.173116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No35c6,101$2,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,162.424714.9%7 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-42.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf566…1386backed No46c5,950$2,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,727.851118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-67.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc1…f6b8backed Yes72c5,600$4,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No32c5,549$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.96475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3764…c5ebbacked No34c5,468$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.192832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No24c5,443$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed No7c5,273$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7789…a2cebacked No47c5,190$2,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,417633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7851backed No21c5,182$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44c…1223backed No33c5,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked No23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No27c5,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c3…eb07backed No80c5,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.