IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6619036865c2d27f1b1c00cd565ce74f6aa72ef93be29c315be36941d3559c59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,286,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,297,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,286,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,627 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed No | 3c | 519,129$13,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,681.95 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Yes | 58c | 124,298$72,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,191.56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 119,371$93,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,271.32 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…3212backed No | 21c | 86,462$18,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,248.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 27c | 69,630$18,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,963.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…62c5backed No | 13c | 67,690$9,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,116.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 28c | 60,470$17,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,176.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…ab2fbacked No | 23c | 40,600$9,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,232.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eff…7196backed Yes | 69c | 40,200$27,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,601.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d5…2884backed No | 6c | 40,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 68c | 39,118$26,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,585.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5c…bf77backed No | 32c | 34,534$11,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,102.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…8717backed No | 31c | 34,453$10,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,774.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…f82bbacked Yes | 62c | 32,466$20,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,186.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…27a2backed Yes | 62c | 32,464$20,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,343.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 31,192$7,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,642.76 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cb…ecb7backed Yes | 76c | 31,000$23,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,410.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 7c | 29,011$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked No | 26c | 27,995$7,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,210.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 68c | 26,983$18,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,622.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 33c | 25,474$8,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,368.62 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 76c | 22,405$17,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,301.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a9…c9a1backed Yes | 73c | 20,599$15,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,462.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96c…d1c7backed Yes | 78c | 20,000$15,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,340 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa169…bcb6backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 68c | 19,831$13,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,333.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 79c | 19,767$15,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,080.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…5a8dbacked Yes | 64c | 19,337$12,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,970.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 73c | 18,475$13,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,922.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 30c | 18,000$5,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,459.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…7e70backed Yes | 31c | 17,324$5,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,923.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 67c | 17,132$11,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,720.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked No | 38c | 17,088$6,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,426.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c44…fcd4backed Yes | 68c | 16,569$11,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,235.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 0c | 15,196$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked No | 36c | 15,000$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,399.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76cf…9452backed Yes | 66c | 14,331$9,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,935.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 74c | 14,040$10,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,624 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…447cbacked Yes | 71c | 14,015$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,015.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 38c | 13,998$5,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 28c | 13,391$3,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,749.03 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa324…2032backed Yes | 78c | 13,372$10,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,994.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c94…00d0backed No | 0c | 13,340$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 11c | 13,332$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 19c | 13,006$2,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,458.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69c…6b19backed Yes | 76c | 12,969$9,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,074.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 5c | 12,900$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc78e…4718backed Yes | 75c | 12,699$9,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,123.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 29c | 12,244$3,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,606.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936e…473fbacked No | 47c | 11,856$5,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,558.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 73c | 11,542$8,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,129.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…5d15backed No | 16c | 11,519$1,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…158bbacked No | 22c | 10,818$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,379.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…0600backed No | 25c | 10,777$2,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,739.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4a…dff7backed No | 9c | 10,579$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed No | 42c | 10,355$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22b…3525backed No | 38c | 10,232$3,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,888 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…00f4backed No | 27c | 10,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed No | 32c | 9,687$3,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,096.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…aaddbacked No | 34c | 9,622$3,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,312.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…dca3backed Yes | 70c | 9,483$6,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 39c | 9,418$3,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,651.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 37c | 9,000$3,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,329.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4310…37e1backed No | 38c | 8,933$3,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,355.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed No | 28c | 8,470$2,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400.57 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…8364backed Yes | 73c | 8,164$5,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,229.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafcc…fb70backed No | 25c | 8,113$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 4c | 8,055$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…0a46backed Yes | 63c | 8,051$5,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,939.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed Yes | 70c | 8,017$5,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,423.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 24c | 8,004$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,924.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951e…d394backed Yes | 66c | 8,000$5,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,719.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 33c | 7,952$2,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,656.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f1…b762backed Yes | 78c | 7,700$6,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6791…0122backed No | 30c | 7,635$2,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,272.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…155dbacked No | 33c | 7,616$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…cabcbacked Yes | 56c | 7,500$4,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,315.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98c2…f85dbacked Yes | 79c | 7,436$5,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…d1e4backed No | 79c | 7,149$5,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,642.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.8wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 4c | 7,144$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381e…9251backed Yes | 71c | 7,059$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,059.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 36c | 6,959$2,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,509.07 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…dddcbacked No | 43c | 6,946$2,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,971.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd920…61a9backed Yes | 79c | 6,603$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked No | 0c | 6,565$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 71c | 6,500$4,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,865 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed No | 40c | 6,452$2,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,558.17 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 35c | 6,101$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.42 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…1386backed No | 46c | 5,950$2,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,727.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc1…f6b8backed Yes | 72c | 5,600$4,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 32c | 5,549$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 34c | 5,468$1,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,835.19 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 24c | 5,443$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed No | 7c | 5,273$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a2cebacked No | 47c | 5,190$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,417 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed No | 21c | 5,182$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…1223backed No | 33c | 5,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked No | 23c | 5,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…eb07backed No | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?this page
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.