IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6113371e7e1a872fbb238ab0697c52757b1cdcff77a3dbd6ac1541604dfa6388
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $705,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $696,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $705,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 307 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79df…0beabacked No | 5c | 54,695$2,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,621.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 1c | 40,995$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.95 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…f18fbacked No | 4c | 23,385$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…62c5backed No | 3c | 21,618$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.06 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…baedbacked No | 4c | 20,833$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 3c | 15,058$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed No | 3c | 11,176$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Yes | 62c | 11,139$6,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,193.17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…a169backed No | 4c | 10,947$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dda…8244backed No | 3c | 10,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 4c | 9,389$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 4c | 7,385$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.8 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 4c | 7,374$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.69 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked No | 5c | 7,315$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 6c | 7,081$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…a470backed No | 2c | 6,665$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked No | 5c | 6,551$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 6,334$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 43c | 5,770$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,485.48 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…280cbacked No | 4c | 5,387$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…daa6backed No | 4c | 5,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…0a39backed No | 1c | 4,980$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f3…b7ddbacked No | 4c | 4,800$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…bbd8backed No | 2c | 4,725$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 4,437$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.84 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…d1e4backed No | 63c | 4,303$2,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,729.18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.8wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa696…ee23backed No | 2c | 4,137$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 4,097$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.95 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed No | 4c | 3,798$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.7 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed No | 3c | 3,587$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 2c | 3,583$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2d…d67cbacked No | 3c | 3,550$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…288bbacked Yes | 33c | 3,425$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +138.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…b5d4backed No | 3c | 3,400$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0b…5f9dbacked No | 4c | 3,400$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…0df2backed No | 3c | 3,055$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce5…b6a3backed No | 3c | 3,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…5c82backed No | 4c | 2,791$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe81c…9becbacked No | 4c | 2,778$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe1…efd3backed No | 3c | 2,763$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87dd…e210backed No | 3c | 2,500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 3c | 2,484$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed No | 4c | 2,404$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 2,302$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.97 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…1c34backed No | 2c | 2,279$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…fea5backed Yes | 34c | 2,269$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 20c | 2,194$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.89 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked No | 3c | 2,189$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked No | 64c | 2,130$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed No | 2c | 2,081$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 51c | 2,064$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 23cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 3c | 2,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 4c | 2,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…8717backed No | 2c | 2,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…70a5backed No | 4c | 1,998$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4d…2adbbacked No | 59c | 1,960$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…3340backed No | 3c | 1,927$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda9d…5071backed Yes | 48c | 1,894$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…8da0backed No | 4c | 1,872$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…b7afbacked No | 5c | 1,871$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…5dc7backed No | 1c | 1,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 35c | 1,569$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No | 2c | 1,558$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -69%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3716…bb2dbacked No | 3c | 1,429$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…1d51backed No | 1c | 1,404$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…da49backed No | 3c | 1,356$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 1,338$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c74…2fe5backed No | 4c | 1,293$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…888abacked No | 3c | 1,292$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…d6b1backed No | 4c | 1,276$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 17c | 1,269$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8backed No | 49c | 1,260$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6b…9390backed No | 4c | 1,250$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…d793backed No | 4c | 1,245$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 65c | 1,238$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…f00abacked No | 3c | 1,212$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…918ebacked No | 2c | 1,208$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 3c | 1,198$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…9dd6backed No | 2c | 1,179$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 4c | 1,120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked No | 2c | 1,112$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed No | 2c | 1,111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…1794backed No | 4c | 1,100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…dbafbacked No | 5c | 1,089$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…051fbacked No | 25c | 1,045$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b17…cb13backed No | 27c | 1,038$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 11c | 1,021$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 68c | 1,009$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…44e8backed No | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a2cebacked No | 64c | 999.99$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…5e63backed No | 2c | 999.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…9794backed No | 2c | 999.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 38c | 971.62$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 962.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…3ccbbacked No | 5c | 943.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 57c | 934.26$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.43 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2c…5341backed No | 66c | 900$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9f…e1bdbacked No | 5c | 897.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?this page
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.