IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2732048b5334b03103e78c8ae7fa252eab1cce53c45bc3598d82475122afaf63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $212,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…e7a9backed Yes | 3c | 15,671$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…b7fabacked Yes | 3c | 13,159$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.46 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…7960backed Yes | 1c | 12,024$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 3c | 8,007$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ed…105abacked Yes | 3c | 7,805$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 3c | 7,335$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes | 4c | 6,233$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.42 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…498bbacked Yes | 3c | 5,693$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,454$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…82e4backed Yes | 1c | 5,205$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,025$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.84 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 3c | 4,599$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x837e…654abacked Yes | 1c | 3,827$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 2c | 3,487$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6a…3e53backed Yes | 2c | 3,347$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd475…d3c0backed Yes | 1c | 3,307$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 2c | 3,275$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…fc58backed Yes | 3c | 3,030$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 3c | 2,444$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3071…0463backed Yes | 1c | 2,241$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 2c | 2,222$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…78a7backed Yes | 1c | 2,152$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,839$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,822$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 3c | 1,600$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4325…aa54backed Yes | 3c | 1,594$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 3c | 1,486$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x545a…32c3backed Yes | 1c | 1,356$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…dde6backed Yes | 3c | 1,325$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 1,059$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,015$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…f39cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…d006backed Yes | 3c | 969.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…7b83backed Yes | 2c | 905.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 2c | 840$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 2c | 800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 796.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Yes | 4c | 768.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d7…1c40backed Yes | 4c | 734.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d3…706ebacked Yes | 3c | 711.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 700$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…0ebabacked Yes | 3c | 666.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd61a…c7f1backed Yes | 2c | 591.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…793abacked Yes | 2c | 517.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…1c34backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ac…06a7backed Yes | 3c | 483.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 468$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cce…0792backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b8…6528backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?this page
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.