IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4d841659e8b1fe050980ec9b7deae31accc10e529082fe9468ef9699d11aec2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,142,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,168,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,142,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 623 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4ea…62c5backed No | 4c | 182,765$7,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,131.37 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 13c | 101,431$13,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,083.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Yes | 76c | 86,804$66,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,541.06 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 13c | 46,396$6,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,054.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 14c | 42,370$6,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,095.79 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…ab2fbacked No | 11c | 40,000$4,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,377.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…3212backed No | 18c | 38,762$6,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,993.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed No | 6c | 34,370$2,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,115.97 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 18c | 34,107$6,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,116.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa169…bcb6backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fd…01e6backed No | 1c | 26,608$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa962…8978backed No | 16c | 26,538$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f3…d6ddbacked No | 20c | 20,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 15c | 20,000$2,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,979.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked No | 7c | 19,550$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…f82bbacked Yes | 79c | 17,825$14,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,719.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c6…73a7backed No | 20c | 17,266$3,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,453.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 12c | 17,032$2,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,124.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 16,092$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…155dbacked No | 16c | 15,551$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 18c | 15,514$2,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,746.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed No | 6c | 15,000$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…5d15backed No | 6c | 13,320$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 14c | 12,045$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked No | 21c | 12,000$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 5c | 11,800$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 15c | 11,653$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.43 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked No | 8c | 11,219$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed No | 18c | 11,000$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 19c | 10,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 7c | 9,263$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.94 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed No | 17c | 8,710$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.48 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 9c | 8,532$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.96 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 15c | 8,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e30…f1d6backed No | 9c | 7,800$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…0600backed No | 16c | 7,392$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 10c | 6,876$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…280cbacked No | 15c | 6,667$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa7…3fcebacked No | 1c | 6,315$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…bbd8backed No | 15c | 6,281$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…8c4abacked Yes | 79c | 6,271$4,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…f14fbacked No | 20c | 6,005$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 13c | 6,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…00f4backed No | 9c | 5,800$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9a8abacked Yes | 78c | 5,668$4,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 14c | 5,490$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.38 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c36…1ee3backed No | 20c | 5,397$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 14c | 5,211$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 12c | 5,123$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.39 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 2c | 4,895$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a7…3362backed No | 18c | 4,799$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 11c | 4,585$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…5c76backed No | 17c | 4,348$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…302dbacked No | 10c | 4,274$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb848…62c0backed No | 12c | 4,084$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 12c | 4,027$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.69 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked No | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3d…01f3backed No | 20c | 4,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7109…9308backed No | 10c | 3,976$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…1386backed No | 19c | 3,800$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 13c | 3,780$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f16…701dbacked No | 1c | 3,750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d9…ecd7backed No | 21c | 3,704$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 7c | 3,700$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a2…3715backed No | 12c | 3,595$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 14c | 3,313$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.64 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd2…6ba2backed No | 19c | 3,304$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…06c0backed No | 13c | 3,299$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…7edbbacked No | 14c | 3,299$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 1c | 3,283$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed No | 21c | 3,164$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.26 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked No | 4c | 3,118$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5494…faacbacked Yes | 16c | 3,063$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,563.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +222.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed No | 13c | 3,018$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…44e8backed No | 12c | 3,017$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 79c | 3,000$2,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed No | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked No | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…f003backed No | 16c | 2,973$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 12c | 2,931$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +97%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 3c | 2,900$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ff…f0c4backed No | 15c | 2,770$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…3340backed No | 11c | 2,727$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…1223backed No | 16c | 2,719$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked No | 12c | 2,700$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…8717backed No | 10c | 2,600$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aed…e7bbbacked Yes | 78c | 2,500$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…5528backed No | 15c | 2,500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…f5a6backed Yes | 74c | 2,500$1,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 9c | 2,377$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 69c | 2,338$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…e3dabacked No | 19c | 2,287$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…1f30backed No | 22c | 2,280$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 12c | 2,275$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…256dbacked No | 1c | 2,269$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…5348backed No | 1c | 2,228$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…dadcbacked No | 14c | 2,140$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…f295backed No | 16c | 2,063$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 21c | 2,044$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.99 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 2,040$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.78 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?this page
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.