IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93f2e17cfd239c4667eb3d41ff04e2cd1ae6f3f663210cbc42ec1296ff880805
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,325,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,142,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,325,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,099 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf020…3212backed No | 77c | 141,996$109,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,235.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Yes | 47c | 134,358$62,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,480.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…80b9backed Yes | 1c | 108,077$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 22c | 103,290$22,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,847.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 0c | 78,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 7c | 59,117$4,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,281.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…f14fbacked No | 66c | 53,699$35,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,478.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3c…3111backed Yes | 43c | 50,000$21,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,399.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 54c | 48,515$26,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,434.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 59c | 46,644$27,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,332.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 42,639$28,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,100.03 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…ab2fbacked No | 38c | 40,007$15,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,640.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac8…7b39backed Yes | 59c | 37,585$22,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,006.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…492ebacked Yes | 0c | 35,390$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…b2adbacked No | 43c | 34,465$14,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,690.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked No | 53c | 32,558$17,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,349.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950e…f8e5backed No | 54c | 26,530$14,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,314.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 23,350$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.65 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…179ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4310…37e1backed No | 57c | 18,494$10,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,953.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed No | 44c | 17,466$7,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,827.9 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed Yes | 46c | 16,473$7,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,618.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 8c | 16,347$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 43c | 16,242$6,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,913.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,206$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 61c | 15,469$9,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,420.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 52c | 15,429$8,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,050.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 45c | 15,417$6,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,460.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…31e6backed No | 61c | 14,933$9,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,893.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 13,918$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.81 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 47c | 13,389$6,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,350 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed No | 47c | 13,302$6,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,069.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 40c | 12,569$5,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,568.67 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 44c | 12,200$5,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,397.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381e…9251backed Yes | 41c | 12,060$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed No | 64c | 10,936$7,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,901.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed No | 55c | 10,665$5,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,799.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24f0…7ad4backed No | 47c | 10,658$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,657.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…00f4backed No | 50c | 10,400$5,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,151.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 37c | 10,372$3,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,837.16 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb35…f20fbacked Yes | 50c | 10,008$5,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,003.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed No | 56c | 10,002$5,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,447.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…4bc6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…62c5backed No | 48c | 9,999$4,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,221.69 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 56c | 9,126$5,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,011.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed No | 38c | 8,953$3,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,551.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 51c | 8,828$4,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,515.79 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…8332backed No | 51c | 8,771$4,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,267.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked No | 60c | 8,613$5,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,487.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f1…b762backed Yes | 62c | 8,600$5,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,346.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d4…a140backed Yes | 45c | 8,404$3,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,763.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad93…cf71backed Yes | 49c | 7,935$3,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,890.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 42c | 7,769$3,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,262.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 54c | 7,410$3,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,418.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 43c | 7,389$3,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,213.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed No | 60c | 7,130$4,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,863.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f5…3766backed Yes | 34c | 7,000$2,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,370 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…cd3abacked Yes | 67c | 7,000$4,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,689.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb01…b811backed No | 31c | 6,798$2,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,660.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +218.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed No | 41c | 6,500$2,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,804.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 42c | 6,472$2,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,743.91 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951e…d394backed Yes | 47c | 6,383$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 44c | 6,256$2,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,483.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +49%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Yes | 45c | 6,250$2,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,812.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…33bdbacked Yes | 42c | 6,058$2,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,559.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cb…ecb7backed Yes | 62c | 6,000$3,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,719.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc05…013abacked Yes | 53c | 5,929$3,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 43c | 5,874$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb3…4f21backed No | 63c | 5,754$3,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 61c | 5,584$3,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,391.81 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x444b…add1backed Yes | 27c | 5,446$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6126…8b21backed Yes | 51c | 5,248$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked No | 44c | 5,230$2,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,944.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes | 65c | 5,144$3,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,329.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 48c | 5,101$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d17…f3adbacked No | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…0d04backed No | 75c | 4,112$3,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…2f4ebacked No | 54c | 4,096$2,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…155dbacked No | 61c | 4,075$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd888…3c9fbacked Yes | 49c | 4,068$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…793fbacked Yes | 38c | 4,017$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,545.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 52c | 4,000$2,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,923.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +214.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d01…27cbbacked No | 33c | 4,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,659.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa324…2032backed Yes | 61c | 4,000$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,439.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…9f65backed Yes | 46c | 3,900$1,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,784.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 55c | 3,864$2,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.81 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 43c | 3,855$1,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a2cebacked No | 64c | 3,600$2,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…3b03backed Yes | 40c | 3,585$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked No | 34c | 3,577$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,377.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +95%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…03ccbacked No | 49c | 3,511$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 47c | 3,472$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,629.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad4e…12f1backed Yes | 58c | 3,412$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,992.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked No | 53c | 3,371$1,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed Yes | 58c | 3,310$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 50c | 3,213$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9978…a49ebacked No | 42c | 3,165$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…d7c6backed Yes | 65c | 2,851$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…8ffcbacked No | 45c | 2,844$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?this page
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.