TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,325,564
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,142,840

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,325,564 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,099 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf020…3212backed No77c141,996$109,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,235.63540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…3931backed Yes47c134,358$62,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,480.291643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b6…80b9backed Yes1c108,077$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes22c103,290$22,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,847.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed Yes0c78,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes7c59,117$4,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,281.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe03…f14fbacked No66c53,699$35,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,478.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa3c…3111backed Yes43c50,000$21,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,399.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed Yes54c48,515$26,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,434.23812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bab…0fe5backed No59c46,644$27,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,332.39475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No67c42,639$28,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,100.0314425.7%37 W · 107 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x714a…ab2fbacked No38c40,007$15,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,640.54666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ac8…7b39backed Yes59c37,585$22,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,006.3670%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9837…492ebacked Yes0c35,390$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc7d…b2adbacked No43c34,465$14,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,690.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked No53c32,558$17,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,349.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x950e…f8e5backed No54c26,530$14,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,314.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c23,350$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.65150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x306b…179ebacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4310…37e1backed No57c18,494$10,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,953.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed No44c17,466$7,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,827.91513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-68.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed Yes46c16,473$7,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,618.59425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes8c16,347$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.3540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick16cpaid+201.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes43c16,242$6,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,913.61136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes0c16,206$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.21119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-76.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes61c15,469$9,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,420.811145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes52c15,429$8,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,050.61650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No45c15,417$6,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,460.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ad…31e6backed No61c14,933$9,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,893.77333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes3c13,918$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.814418.2%8 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-71.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes47c13,389$6,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,350540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-30.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7851backed No47c13,302$6,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,069.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No40c12,569$5,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,568.674131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-21.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed Yes44c12,200$5,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,397.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x381e…9251backed Yes41c12,060$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-64.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed No64c10,936$7,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,901.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac0…55f3backed No55c10,665$5,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,799.194100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+44.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24f0…7ad4backed No47c10,658$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,657.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa43d…00f4backed No50c10,400$5,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,151.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes37c10,372$3,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,837.164112.2%5 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-81.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb35…f20fbacked Yes50c10,008$5,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,003.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-48.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed No56c10,002$5,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,447.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x42d0…4bc6backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4ea…62c5backed No48c9,999$4,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,221.691010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-79.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No56c9,126$5,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,011.25580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+111.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed No38c8,953$3,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,551.02450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes51c8,828$4,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,515.791546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59c6…8332backed No51c8,771$4,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,267.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked No60c8,613$5,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,487.04633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1f1…b762backed Yes62c8,600$5,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,346.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67d4…a140backed Yes45c8,404$3,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,763.9550%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad93…cf71backed Yes49c7,935$3,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,890.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes42c7,769$3,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,262.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No54c7,410$3,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,418.09475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No43c7,389$3,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,213.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53d3…ba87backed No60c7,130$4,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,863.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8f5…3766backed Yes34c7,000$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,37010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b85…cd3abacked Yes67c7,000$4,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,689.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb01…b811backed No31c6,798$2,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,660.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+218.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb4…7595backed No41c6,500$2,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,804.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes42c6,472$2,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,743.912626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x951e…d394backed Yes47c6,383$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No44c6,256$2,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,483.62683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+49%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7373…3964backed Yes45c6,250$2,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,812.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0487…33bdbacked Yes42c6,058$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,559.8930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4cb…ecb7backed Yes62c6,000$3,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,719.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc05…013abacked Yes53c5,929$3,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,120.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes43c5,874$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-48.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedb3…4f21backed No63c5,754$3,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,138.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Yes61c5,584$3,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,391.811428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-57.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x444b…add1backed Yes27c5,446$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6126…8b21backed Yes51c5,248$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204b…6a5cbacked No44c5,230$2,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,944.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes65c5,144$3,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,329.96616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-75.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes48c5,101$2,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,444.38714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-61.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d17…f3adbacked No59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0503100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ca…0d04backed No75c4,112$3,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.26540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6630…2f4ebacked No54c4,096$2,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,896.953100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7079…155dbacked No61c4,075$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.8540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd888…3c9fbacked Yes49c4,068$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b6…793fbacked Yes38c4,017$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked No52c4,000$2,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,923.3650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+214.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked No33c4,000$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,659.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+112.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa324…2032backed Yes61c4,000$2,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,439.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4920…9f65backed Yes46c3,900$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,784.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked No55c3,864$2,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,741.813627.8%10 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked No43c3,855$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.111050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7789…a2cebacked No64c3,600$2,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x683a…3b03backed Yes40c3,585$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce0…8d6fbacked No34c3,577$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,377.053100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+95%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48e3…03ccbacked No49c3,511$1,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,796.59850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes47c3,472$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.6540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad4e…12f1backed Yes58c3,412$1,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked No53c3,371$1,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.78560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9567…e505backed Yes58c3,310$1,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,913.08944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No50c3,213$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.441338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9978…a49ebacked No42c3,165$1,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,837.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+44.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked No55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3502100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf580…d7c6backed Yes65c2,851$1,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,843.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78fa…8ffcbacked No45c2,844$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,556.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.