TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$797,678
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$859,798

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $797,678 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16c7…3931backed Yes15c57,694$8,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,796.491643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d16…e798backed Yes9c56,953$5,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,273.09100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17a7…470ebacked Yes9c55,000$5,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,123.7740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa4e…315ebacked Yes9c39,186$3,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,604.1360%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7638…d2f7backed Yes0c26,650$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Yes9c15,600$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.0170%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e3b…5d31backed Yes12c14,801$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.0340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc23…6043backed Yes11c10,681$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,216.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67d4…a140backed Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed Yes11c8,959$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.13812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c8…cabbbacked Yes15c6,822$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed Yes7c6,098$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.642030%6 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fd0…047fbacked Yes2c5,647$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b08…0720backed Yes14c5,600$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79850%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe714…d510backed Yes18c5,495$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9082…e0a7backed Yes9c5,333$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3cc…447cbacked Yes19c5,170$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-80%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8af…0550backed Yes18c5,133$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900190%0 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9d5…a1ecbacked Yes9c5,000$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes10c4,898$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50070%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a60…7b81backed Yes12c4,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-82.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b7…9cc5backed Yes9c4,087$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.99520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-68.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1e2…b7fabacked Yes12c4,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes8c3,423$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.41345.9%2 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-89.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x411a…5a86backed Yes9c3,383$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac8…7b39backed Yes18c3,327$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.3270%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes11c3,212$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.98156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-86%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes12c3,015$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.163339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc40b…8c5abacked Yes8c3,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes6c2,850$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.471723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91c2…8832backed Yes8c2,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…102cbacked No79c2,400$1,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaed…41f0backed Yes9c2,358$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x049a…b22abacked Yes10c2,227$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.89812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-83.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes3c2,133$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.74112.2%5 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-81.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd669…d24ebacked Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf0…9ef6backed Yes13c1,988$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.49450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b1…836bbacked Yes10c1,978$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.761010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes13c1,870$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.12528%7 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-55.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2dfe…0a5ebacked Yes9c1,836$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.241010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-41.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes12c1,780$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.221010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-84.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f0d…db1dbacked Yes15c1,574$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f16…701dbacked Yes16c1,549$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82fd…deb1backed Yes13c1,511$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1199…d5f9backed Yes2c1,505$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.670%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed Yes14c1,500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c1,500$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.1500%0 W · 50 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef9f…8924backed Yes7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10570%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe54d…fea1backed Yes15c1,427$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e13…e968backed Yes18c1,400$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-65.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes14c1,375$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.45731.6%18 W · 39 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-51.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8188…0667backed Yes1c1,348$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.17520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-72.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes16c1,328$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2138129.6%24 W · 57 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c1,243$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.38610%0 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xece8…130fbacked Yes12c1,222$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdf77…7d01backed Yes9c1,222$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50d3…bad4backed Yes13c1,200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes7c1,200$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9280%0 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x009a…2b8ebacked Yes13c1,200$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15160%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7109…9308backed Yes14c1,200$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd52b…5c72backed No80c1,200$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2402227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-55.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c1,199$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.72841.2%1 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick8cpaid-98.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa160…f853backed Yes8c1,196$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedb2…ccf3backed Yes18c1,111$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb81…423abacked Yes13c1,100$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes12c1,074$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.92140%0 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c46…ae13backed Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-75.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01e0…1134backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc5…6606backed Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3080…dde6backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes9c952.94$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.914418.2%8 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-71.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes17c944.4$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-90.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes3c935.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.052927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-55.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2425…3dd1backed Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a14…b7cdbacked Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c90…5bacbacked Yes11c900$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9960%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c887.24$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.354714.9%7 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-42.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x845a…d006backed Yes11c871.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbadf…b7f9backed Yes7c858.01$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b1…8369backed Yes12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x38a8…865abacked Yes15c833.19$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.71130%0 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x23a8…8004backed Yes3c800$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-73.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes14c800$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38ae…2f79backed Yes12c799.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22be…64e3backed Yes13c794.83$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fcd…82e4backed Yes3c781.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5880%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes19c770.01$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-48.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes14c757.54$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.061435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-43.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…c9fbbacked Yes10c740$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb82e…5278backed Yes12c737.22$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.37714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-53.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x837e…654abacked Yes22c720.23$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4590%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x443d…e142backed Yes15c673.33$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes6c666.88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.74260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16d7…1c40backed Yes14c654.72$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x714a…ab2fbacked No75c626.72$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.68666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…4141backed Yes2c626.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbebf…4e07backed No79c609$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.894100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes22c601.38$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.2640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked Yes7c600$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc333…543ebacked Yes2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.