IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x659ddeb762d5e28b0fe991e0ffe82dd0ce87a939f6658934d059cea31f3b7fac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $797,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $859,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $797,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16c7…3931backed Yes | 15c | 57,694$8,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,796.49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 9c | 56,953$5,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,273.09 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a7…470ebacked Yes | 9c | 55,000$5,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,123.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4e…315ebacked Yes | 9c | 39,186$3,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,604.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7638…d2f7backed Yes | 0c | 26,650$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Yes | 9c | 15,600$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3b…5d31backed Yes | 12c | 14,801$1,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…6043backed Yes | 11c | 10,681$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d4…a140backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 11c | 8,959$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…cabbbacked Yes | 15c | 6,822$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 7c | 6,098$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.64 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd0…047fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,647$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…0720backed Yes | 14c | 5,600$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed Yes | 18c | 5,495$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9082…e0a7backed Yes | 9c | 5,333$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…447cbacked Yes | 19c | 5,170$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 18c | 5,133$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…a1ecbacked Yes | 9c | 5,000$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes | 10c | 4,898$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 12c | 4,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…9cc5backed Yes | 9c | 4,087$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…b7fabacked Yes | 12c | 4,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 8c | 3,423$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.41 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x411a…5a86backed Yes | 9c | 3,383$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac8…7b39backed Yes | 18c | 3,327$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 11c | 3,212$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.98 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -86%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 12c | 3,015$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.16 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…8c5abacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 6c | 2,850$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.47 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c2…8832backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…102cbacked No | 79c | 2,400$1,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaed…41f0backed Yes | 9c | 2,358$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 10c | 2,227$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,133$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…d24ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…9ef6backed Yes | 13c | 1,988$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b1…836bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,978$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.76 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,870$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.1 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfe…0a5ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,836$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 12c | 1,780$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…db1dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,574$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f16…701dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,549$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…deb1backed Yes | 13c | 1,511$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…d5f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,505$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fea1backed Yes | 15c | 1,427$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed Yes | 18c | 1,400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 1,375$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.4 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…0667backed Yes | 1c | 1,348$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,328$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 1,243$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece8…130fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,222$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf77…7d01backed Yes | 9c | 1,222$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed Yes | 13c | 1,200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x009a…2b8ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,200$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7109…9308backed Yes | 14c | 1,200$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 80c | 1,200$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,199$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…f853backed Yes | 8c | 1,196$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb2…ccf3backed Yes | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb81…423abacked Yes | 13c | 1,100$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 12c | 1,074$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.92 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…ae13backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e0…1134backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc5…6606backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…dde6backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 952.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 17c | 944.4$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 935.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a14…b7cdbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 887.24$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…d006backed Yes | 11c | 871.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbadf…b7f9backed Yes | 7c | 858.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b1…8369backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 15c | 833.19$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.71 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 3c | 800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 14c | 800$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ae…2f79backed Yes | 12c | 799.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…64e3backed Yes | 13c | 794.83$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…82e4backed Yes | 3c | 781.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 19c | 770.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 14c | 757.54$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.06 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…c9fbbacked Yes | 10c | 740$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed Yes | 12c | 737.22$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x837e…654abacked Yes | 22c | 720.23$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…e142backed Yes | 15c | 673.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 6c | 666.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d7…1c40backed Yes | 14c | 654.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…ab2fbacked No | 75c | 626.72$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…4141backed Yes | 2c | 626.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed No | 79c | 609$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 22c | 601.38$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 7c | 600$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc333…543ebacked Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?this page
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.