IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2576d8fe9a5ed75f58c2ef34bad961916d4799254c8d248734aee5cf5224eb07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $946,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $916,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $946,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3952…3a62backed Yes | 1c | 130,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba55…af02backed Yes | 1c | 62,454$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ed…105abacked Yes | 1c | 32,965$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…b7fabacked Yes | 1c | 31,055$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68d…9e33backed Yes | 1c | 22,657$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2552…c45ebacked Yes | 1c | 18,816$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 1c | 17,946$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 1c | 14,219$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…ad85backed Yes | 2c | 13,969$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…d006backed Yes | 1c | 13,721$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 1c | 13,416$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.62 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 13,085$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4325…aa54backed Yes | 2c | 12,290$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 2c | 11,295$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…c6f9backed Yes | 2c | 10,501$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,181$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfe…0a5ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,131$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x837e…654abacked Yes | 1c | 7,925$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 2c | 7,245$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…2b5cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,197$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes | 1c | 7,141$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5392…09d0backed Yes | 1c | 6,656$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…fc58backed Yes | 1c | 6,548$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Yes | 2c | 6,346$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd5…82c9backed Yes | 2c | 5,911$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6a…3e53backed Yes | 1c | 5,705$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccfe…9e3bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,620$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…dc46backed Yes | 1c | 5,365$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…d5f9backed Yes | 1c | 5,365$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 1c | 5,297$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433d…a85abacked Yes | 2c | 5,003$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e39…0055backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 4,750$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,558$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,277$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 4,080$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 3,946$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 3,920$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c2…8832backed Yes | 1c | 3,846$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x841c…b247backed Yes | 2c | 3,809$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,692$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…675abacked Yes | 1c | 3,574$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2206…58ddbacked Yes | 2c | 3,096$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,083$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,073$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…0d48backed Yes | 2c | 2,973$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed Yes | 2c | 2,867$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…fa73backed Yes | 2c | 2,565$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…46debacked Yes | 2c | 2,525$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…3d18backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16dd…adf5backed Yes | 1c | 2,333$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6d…1762backed Yes | 1c | 2,309$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,270$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,016$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…0230backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8249…b0fbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…fac4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 1,863$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Yes | 1c | 1,801$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ac…06a7backed Yes | 2c | 1,566$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,557$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d3…706ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,503$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x719f…0d90backed Yes | 1c | 1,441$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594a…e7fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,371$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…97cdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,366$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…e5dabacked Yes | 2c | 1,263$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,260$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 1c | 1,203$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdefa…d902backed Yes | 2c | 1,180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd09c…ff45backed Yes | 2c | 1,175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…fd56backed Yes | 2c | 1,148$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…141abacked Yes | 2c | 1,125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 1c | 1,121$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…c8c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x869a…7acbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,052$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…dd70backed Yes | 2c | 1,018$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b48…1eaebacked Yes | 2c | 1,012$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,005$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -69%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x493c…953ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…8837backed Yes | 1c | 962.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…7388backed Yes | 1c | 907.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…78a7backed Yes | 2c | 895.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…871dbacked Yes | 2c | 840.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d7…1c40backed Yes | 2c | 838.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd14b…ff54backed Yes | 2c | 824.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 2c | 818.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x575d…b3a0backed Yes | 2c | 726.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…e41bbacked Yes | 2c | 717.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…500bbacked Yes | 2c | 643.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6623…8a67backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…99e4backed Yes | 2c | 624.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 53c | 69.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?this page
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yes won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?No won
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.