TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$946,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$916,492

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $946,215 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3952…3a62backed Yes1c130,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba55…af02backed Yes1c62,454$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ed…105abacked Yes1c32,965$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.12825%2 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e2…b7fabacked Yes1c31,055$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.2580%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68d…9e33backed Yes1c22,657$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2552…c45ebacked Yes1c18,816$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a60…7b81backed Yes1c17,946$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-82.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74bb…1759backed Yes1c14,219$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa43a…ad85backed Yes2c13,969$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x845a…d006backed Yes1c13,721$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.8760%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes1c13,416$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.62119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c13,085$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.71640%0 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4325…aa54backed Yes2c12,290$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8af…0550backed Yes2c11,295$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184190%0 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6d7…c6f9backed Yes2c10,501$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c9,181$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.881274.7%6 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-83.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dfe…0a5ebacked Yes1c9,131$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.041010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-41.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x837e…654abacked Yes1c7,925$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.590%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed Yes2c7,245$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ce…2b5cbacked Yes1c7,197$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes1c7,141$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5392…09d0backed Yes1c6,656$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500b…fc58backed Yes1c6,548$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0360%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Yes2c6,346$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked Yes1c6,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482010%2 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-60.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbd5…82c9backed Yes2c5,911$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b6a…3e53backed Yes1c5,705$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5260%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccfe…9e3bbacked Yes2c5,620$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x721a…dc46backed Yes1c5,365$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1199…d5f9backed Yes1c5,365$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7170%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes1c5,297$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-90.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x433d…a85abacked Yes2c5,003$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e39…0055backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c4,750$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes1c4,558$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0760%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes1c4,277$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c4,080$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.64610%0 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c3,946$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.91500%0 W · 50 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes1c3,920$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91c2…8832backed Yes1c3,846$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x841c…b247backed Yes2c3,809$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c3,692$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.29382.6%1 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-70.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70dc…675abacked Yes1c3,574$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2206…58ddbacked Yes2c3,096$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes1c3,083$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5370%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c3,073$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.09320%0 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…0d48backed Yes2c2,973$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb82e…5278backed Yes2c2,867$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-53.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2106…fa73backed Yes2c2,565$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5652…46debacked Yes2c2,525$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd52b…5c72backed Yes2c2,500$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.52227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-55.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f59…3d18backed Yes1c2,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16dd…adf5backed Yes1c2,333$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf6d…1762backed Yes1c2,309$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes1c2,300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes1c2,270$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.81280%0 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes2c2,200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-71.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c2,100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked Yes1c2,016$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd239…0230backed Yes1c2,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8249…b0fbbacked Yes1c2,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3ee…fac4backed Yes1c2,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c1,863$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.47260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26a6…dedebacked Yes1c1,801$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1350%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,600$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2841.2%1 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick8cpaid-98.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2ac…06a7backed Yes2c1,566$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes1c1,557$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.29119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-74.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19d3…706ebacked Yes1c1,503$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.94100%0 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x719f…0d90backed Yes1c1,441$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x594a…e7fabacked Yes1c1,371$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1be…97cdbacked Yes2c1,366$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked Yes1c1,300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf788…e5dabacked Yes2c1,263$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes2c1,260$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.12392.6%1 W · 38 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-72%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c1,203$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.73110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdefa…d902backed Yes2c1,180$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd09c…ff45backed Yes2c1,175$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1968…fd56backed Yes2c1,148$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf28c…141abacked Yes2c1,125$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ae…217abacked Yes1c1,121$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5750%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4c5…c8c1backed Yes1c1,111$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x869a…7acbbacked Yes2c1,052$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebfd…dd70backed Yes2c1,018$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b48…1eaebacked Yes2c1,012$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes1c1,005$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.19922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-69%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x493c…953ebacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f6c…8837backed Yes1c962.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…7388backed Yes1c907.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd41b…78a7backed Yes2c895.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc26c…871dbacked Yes2c840.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16d7…1c40backed Yes2c838.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd14b…ff54backed Yes2c824.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes2c818.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.76345.9%2 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-89.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x575d…b3a0backed Yes2c726.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7020…e41bbacked Yes2c717.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00f7…500bbacked Yes2c643.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6623…8a67backed Yes2c625$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5992…99e4backed Yes2c624.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe53c…e569backed No53c69.21$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.73850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.