TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcdc0…dcd8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
216
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 60 out of 100; worst Champions League at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT6459.4%38 W · 26 L+8.2wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 64 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$18.6
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.99
Belgium vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.32
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$9.25
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$76.95
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.36
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$74.25
Spain leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$146.88
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.56
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.88
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$25.5
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5)backed Côte d'Ivoire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$91.8
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$259.38
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$108
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$249
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$189.16
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$183.3
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+66.2%+$171.84
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)backed Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$112
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.05
Egypt leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.48
Uruguay leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$223.93
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$20.46
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)backed Uruguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.1
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$19.8
Showing 25 of 64 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT3560%21 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+25.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$4,044Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+41.4%+$1,674.22
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$301.45
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$114.03
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,434Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$666
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$2,715Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+113.8%+$3,089.41
USD.AI FDV above $250M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$88.16
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$205
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.36
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$722Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$722.04
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$330.13
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$479Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$478.5
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$125
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.99
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+31.6%+$47.78
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$3,165Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+57.4%+$1,816.49
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,487Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+29.8%+$741.03
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$519Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+203.8%+$1,058.26
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+233.3%+$38.42
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$53.59
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$106.9
Rainbow FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$48.55
Infinex FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$118.6
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$282
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$5,557Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+61.1%+$3,393.29
Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$21.5
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT2846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashimabacked Felix Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$26
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$38
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+135.3%+$460
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$743Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$743.46
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolinabacked Svitolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$21.92
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovicbacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$465Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$464.83
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Learner Tienbacked Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Casper Ruudbacked Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritzbacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+122.2%+$55
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$13.95
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaurbacked Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+69.5%+$41
Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tienbacked Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+203%+$67
Australian Open Men's: Marin Cilic vs Casper Ruudbacked Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+44.9%+$31
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machacbacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+72.4%+$42
Australian Open Men's: Francisco Cerundolo vs Andrey Rublevbacked Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Australian Open Men's: Jaume Munar vs Casper Ruudbacked Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+44.9%+$31
Australian Open Men's: Rinky Hijikata vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Vacherot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+58.7%+$37
Australian Open Men's: Jakub Mensik vs Rafael Jodarbacked Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+56.3%+$36
Australian Open Men's: Learner Tien vs Alexander Shevchenkobacked Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+38.9%+$28
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Minaurbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20.38
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritzbacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$32
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$90
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$62
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.6
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid+13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$7,228Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$7,227.66
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,776Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$1,776.09
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$145
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,661Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,661.18
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$734Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$794.78
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+692.8%+$2,284.02
Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$387Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$386.89
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$191.8
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$26.22
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$63.52
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+433.7%+$286.04
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$117
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$87.59
Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+61.3%+$38
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.6
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$280
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+41.6%+$147
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+214.7%+$339.06
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+96.1%+$98
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,752Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+74.2%+$1,300.76
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$78
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$11.66
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48.84
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+160.8%+$93.27
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-41.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20.17
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$58
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.8
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,230Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,230
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$140.04
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$690Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+51.9%+$358.18
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$257.54
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT+94%+$24.07
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,354Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT+79.4%+$1,869.24
All 9 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-65.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$28.98
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$13.25
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+82.5%+$45.22
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$32.26
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$145.24
Rams vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$942Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+31.6%+$297.36
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$15.18
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$124.1
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$116
All 9 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-42.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2025, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick52cpaid+80.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Chess — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+284.6%+$50.2
Google forced to sell Chrome?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$133.48
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 22, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ethereum all time high before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$55.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Liverpool wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+139.8%+$291.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$19.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$21.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.