Us Politics · resolved market
Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05d769a6ba5ac64ae196ff0120bb7400b6697a5cf94573f364d35cc28dbfa22d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,064,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,088,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,064,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 401 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc109…1ad2backed No | 59c | 129,679$77,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,645.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 33cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f3…330dbacked Yes | 42c | 80,382$33,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,805.41 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 61c | 74,096$44,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,212.93 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 38c | 60,493$23,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,008.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 34c | 54,891$18,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,434.01 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 36c | 47,312$16,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,828.53 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 61c | 33,475$20,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,058.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed Yes | 57c | 33,444$19,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,108.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf965…2fcdbacked Yes | 32c | 33,086$10,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,671.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 71c | 27,790$19,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,090.28 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 60c | 22,866$13,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,258.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed No | 54c | 22,733$12,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,557.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…467abacked No | 65c | 19,541$12,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,907.15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 35c | 19,363$6,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,786.18 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f2…7620backed Yes | 46c | 19,148$8,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,871.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 62c | 18,958$11,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,184.29 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…5d8ebacked No | 65c | 15,426$10,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,393.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…2644backed No | 56c | 13,291$7,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,832.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +189.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 70c | 12,096$8,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,645.86 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…6e75backed No | 65c | 11,707$7,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,123 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed No | 62c | 11,526$7,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,378.43 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x230c…f56fbacked No | 60c | 10,960$6,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,373.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 71c | 10,891$7,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,209.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8628…27c2backed No | 62c | 10,655$6,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,037.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked Yes | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed No | 70c | 9,514$6,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,898.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 63c | 9,312$5,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,427.58 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 32c | 8,755$2,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,801.8 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…67c3backed No | 62c | 8,408$5,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,163.96 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 30c | 7,863$2,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,358.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…2f42backed Yes | 33c | 7,842$2,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,606.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 70c | 7,606$5,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.5 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…7773backed Yes | 33c | 7,576$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 63c | 7,368$4,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,736.62 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…3616backed Yes | 47c | 6,909$3,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,253.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 33c | 6,522$2,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,144.08 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed No | 63c | 6,046$3,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,241.57 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1171backed No | 55c | 5,455$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,454.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…8bfdbacked No | 57c | 5,277$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,276.51 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2f…8b9cbacked No | 57c | 4,583$2,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,979.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x776d…2088backed No | 55c | 4,545$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked No | 59c | 4,288$2,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.13 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…d4c2backed No | 4c | 4,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,840 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 60c | 3,728$2,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 33c | 3,500$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked No | 62c | 3,468$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked No | 57c | 3,250$1,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc690…09ecbacked Yes | 36c | 3,229$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…db06backed Yes | 28c | 3,168$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…eb1abacked Yes | 39c | 2,923$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e41…f050backed No | 63c | 2,914$1,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 31c | 2,700$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.99 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…4699backed No | 56c | 2,489$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed No | 73c | 2,414$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.77 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce4…36aabacked Yes | 37c | 2,361$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…f4aabacked Yes | 27c | 2,179$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 64c | 2,081$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.99 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5553…6d2ebacked Yes | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed Yes | 26c | 2,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…c114backed No | 64c | 1,955$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…f4e9backed No | 58c | 1,908$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f2…c208backed Yes | 38c | 1,892$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ccb5backed No | 55c | 1,800$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 28c | 1,800$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a9…307bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,800$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 52c | 1,786$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.48 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d43…b62abacked Yes | 40c | 1,694$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005f…4625backed Yes | 44c | 1,688$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c58…01aebacked Yes | 30c | 1,680$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.88 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Yes | 40c | 1,622$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…57edbacked No | 65c | 1,584$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.05 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +98%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 63c | 1,575$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c5…4fa3backed No | 65c | 1,543$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 73c | 1,542$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.46 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed No | 62c | 1,503$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 32c | 1,502$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed Yes | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked No | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 40c | 1,447$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 71c | 1,400$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 40c | 1,303$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.34 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 29c | 1,300$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked No | 58c | 1,287$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.72 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe81b…edfbbacked No | 54c | 1,280$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.11 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1742…2084backed No | 61c | 1,252$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 27c | 1,245$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.45 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked No | 60c | 1,200$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.66 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 36c | 1,168$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.1 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5369…7302backed No | 56c | 1,112$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 43c | 1,111$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +229.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…1b01backed No | 76c | 1,051$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…e8aabacked No | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 56c | 1,000$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.5 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220a…923bbacked Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…a6cfbacked Yes | 32c | 999.99$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.