IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01759192de454d25043610a0dff13621b60f71d867114ed86778d0e485e46b0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $380,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $360,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $380,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked No | 2c | 67,853$1,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -86%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 2c | 36,869$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.95 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed No | 3c | 14,137$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.04 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 7c | 9,363$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 8,597$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.87 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf7…a7bcbacked No | 8c | 6,159$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked No | 1c | 5,075$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 1c | 4,696$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd82…396ebacked No | 3c | 4,525$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 4,333$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 6c | 4,243$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 5c | 3,880$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.42 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 3,830$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 7c | 2,222$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 4c | 2,200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 2c | 1,765$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 1c | 1,294$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked No | 1c | 1,201$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 1c | 1,101$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44cd…e461backed No | 9c | 1,097$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…652bbacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x720e…17b0backed No | 10c | 990.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 918.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 2c | 879$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c7…3353backed No | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed No | 5c | 827.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed No | 15c | 812.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 2c | 780.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 9c | 766.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8724…c059backed No | 7c | 763.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked No | 1c | 753.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed No | 1c | 700$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de8…7c22backed No | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 2c | 617.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…697dbacked No | 5c | 612$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…e86dbacked No | 3c | 579.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 8c | 545.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 541.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed No | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 8c | 478.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 8c | 460.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…e648backed No | 4c | 446.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 8c | 440.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…ec95backed No | 7c | 437.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…4f2dbacked No | 6c | 402$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4314backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe32…241abacked No | 5c | 384.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +262%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 3c | 367.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dde…d725backed No | 7c | 340.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes | 68c | 328.91$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f01…3e6dbacked No | 9c | 315.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4967…4292backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8157…e77bbacked No | 11c | 292.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…1eb4backed No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…72e4backed No | 8c | 275$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb78…e180backed No | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +436.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…9343backed No | 29c | 241.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 23c | 219.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 10c | 203.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a9…7b59backed No | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…b603backed No | 6c | 183.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 7c | 172.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c74…6493backed No | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 7c | 149.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 13c | 146.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a21…9f57backed No | 14c | 110.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1754…7ec4backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af0…7aefbacked No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…b448backed No | 23c | 87.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…35c3backed Yes | 74c | 47.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9303…9eb7backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.