TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$423,887
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$453,185

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $423,887 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe1a6…467bbacked No1c50,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No0c26,169$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.75640%0 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x409f…543abacked No0c21,694$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No0c18,150$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x396f…33acbacked No10c14,706$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No4c11,950$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.463517.1%6 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6925…e21cbacked No1c9,031$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b2…3ebfbacked No9c8,097$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed No3c7,844$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.21020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-50.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No8c7,273$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.83616.7%6 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No4c6,571$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.96190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3332…cf9dbacked No9c6,200$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No7c5,923$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.650%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75c5…af5dbacked No13c4,500$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No4c4,449$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.67742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked No5c4,427$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No5c4,103$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.09300%0 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No8c4,055$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.73392.6%1 W · 38 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-72%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e2…ad3abacked No8c3,960$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7577…8fb9backed No5c3,336$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.361010%1 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-35.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No8c2,913$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.09100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c2,593$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.791274.7%6 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-83.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No15c2,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.981546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fd…6b3abacked No10c1,700$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No2c1,447$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0511634.5%40 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+165%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d7…4952backed No9c1,143$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dde…d725backed No8c1,031$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.49147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-86.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e6a…e86dbacked No4c975.31$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf81…697dbacked No3c912$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x672a…04e8backed No12c834.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No3c818.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.766327%17 W · 46 L-7.2wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-53.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No4c800$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5280%0 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No1c783.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.79382.6%1 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-70.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8431…0563backed No11c703.87$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe472…e7ebbacked No7c699.97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No5c675.73$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.53563.6%2 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick10cpaid-79%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No8c600$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bc5…4626backed No2c600$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd113…5971backed No7c539.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No10c537.28$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.41210%0 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No8c534.78$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.78329.4%3 W · 29 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-82.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xac42…60d1backed No2c515$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fc0…b994backed No12c417.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4d9e…0841backed No8c394.8$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x35a9…c87abacked No12c371.62$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked No3c369.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7340%0 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ad…72e4backed No10c358.59$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x859c…ac22backed No27c337.94$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed No9c283.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+205.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed No26c276.92$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf9…8e69backed No7c267.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No9c258.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.05333%1 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7487…5f63backed No4c252.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb003…c1a5backed No10c251.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5644…2befbacked No13c238.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No4c237.05$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.243237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe825…1eb4backed No9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No8c209.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.793923.1%9 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6fa…4f2dbacked No8c201$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-13.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed No8c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed No9c199.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183740.5%15 W · 22 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b6f…0e5fbacked No10c199.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea17…0b65backed No11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c52…6689backed No14c144.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f43…68d8backed No11c136.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62c7…6377backed No8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3ae…5a98backed No10c122.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5bb…bdb8backed No16c121.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8063…6882backed No17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26dd…f6b9backed No13c115.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-74.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed No10c110$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf85f…9800backed No10c109.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.91650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e9f…7747backed No15c101.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88aa…787cbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45cc…dcc9backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf52d…0cfcbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62a9…7b59backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes75c71.69$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.92837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-42.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8798…3eeebacked No15c66.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x404c…74dcbacked No20c63.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes79c55.33$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.71050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0a2…e9c7backed No25c52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+88.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes80c34.44$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.03955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed Yes76c26.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.391361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+31.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae01…0c40backed Yes77c18.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.19757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.