IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65f6340d2fbec288127fb90a9979a6a73e99df2fb5ec7a88e14349033cede878
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $627,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $670,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $627,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dfe…0a5ebacked Yes | 3c | 87,940$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 61,070$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.09 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1083…be16backed Yes | 3c | 33,196$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…0849backed Yes | 5c | 24,208$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183b…97d1backed Yes | 1c | 13,460$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…5539backed Yes | 1c | 8,717$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…4841backed Yes | 3c | 8,121$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c19…d772backed Yes | 2c | 7,553$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,293$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…24a2backed Yes | 4c | 7,142$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf185…cc85backed Yes | 3c | 6,851$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,679$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.94 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,493$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +165%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,283$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c0…d5cdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,317$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac40…03fbbacked Yes | 2c | 4,268$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…5f28backed Yes | 2c | 4,156$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a5…92babacked Yes | 1c | 3,946$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,160$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,602$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,594$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,572$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 2c | 2,424$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,400$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b6…676fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,197$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f2…66eebacked Yes | 1c | 2,134$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…bcb7backed Yes | 1c | 2,093$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,047$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,018$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a5…df33backed Yes | 6c | 1,848$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 2c | 1,804$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2941…dad2backed Yes | 1c | 1,795$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,778$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8122…2c6fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,702$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ed…6dedbacked Yes | 1c | 1,663$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 1c | 1,566$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 1c | 1,518$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa91f…5f3bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,335$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f5…b8e5backed Yes | 1c | 1,283$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…0705backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa142…829ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,048$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 9cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…9279backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1caa…5800backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8c…2383backed Yes | 2c | 980$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 971.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde5b…4d51backed Yes | 2c | 907.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3511…62dabacked Yes | 2c | 848.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b99…f82cbacked Yes | 6c | 815.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…ebf0backed Yes | 5c | 783.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e9…be7cbacked Yes | 1c | 674.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 2c | 610.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes | 2c | 599.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f7…a7b0backed Yes | 3c | 585.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bb…ae6fbacked Yes | 2c | 575.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139c…bc2abacked Yes | 2c | 527.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…13e6backed Yes | 4c | 467.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 428.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e63…c114backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91a…648ebacked Yes | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.