TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$785,069
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$853,500

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $785,069 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 721 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b63…11a4backed No2c37,520$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.223517.1%6 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc76…7842backed No6c24,876$1,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,591.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes57c20,004$11,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,529.523616.7%6 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…3ebfbacked No44c19,401$8,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,530.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcfd…7b04backed No0c12,454$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed No33c12,307$4,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,023.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c10,249$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.36190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No14c8,836$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.36100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5d…1aaabacked No31c8,513$2,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,676.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No1c8,325$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b9…4f10backed No0c8,302$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dde…d725backed No25c8,245$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,095.28147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-86.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed Yes68c8,000$5,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550.243100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No7c7,839$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.38345.9%2 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-89.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6e0…16acbacked Yes75c7,775$5,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.01728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No34c7,290$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,459.8750%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc76…0ad0backed Yes68c6,536$4,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,090.67757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+30.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0ca…4166backed No5c5,651$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…bbd8backed No0c5,545$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.421020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-53%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No27c5,186$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.691428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-46.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c5,052$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.47640%0 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c4,795$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.411274.7%6 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-83.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc83…bcd2backed No1c4,500$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes73c4,498$3,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.412626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e7…40b4backed No3c4,200$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf74c…434cbacked No5c4,021$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.8340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed No26c4,002$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.9220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No8c3,576$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.991723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c36…207dbacked Yes68c3,566$2,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd923…f400backed No36c3,345$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3332…cf9dbacked No39c3,264$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes55c3,187$1,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431.53837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-42.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…a9d4backed No32c3,092$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5d7…4952backed No33c2,820$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes74c2,808$2,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.672245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39e5…21dabacked No15c2,795$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked No29c2,766$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacd8…c209backed No3c2,690$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f43…68d8backed No27c2,658$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes71c2,572$1,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.68683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+49%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No32c2,550$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.615721.1%12 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x28a4…15eebacked No3c2,500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6056…c27cbacked Yes67c2,500$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No36c2,500$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-79.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e6a…e86dbacked No11c2,493$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.81616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a9b…074bbacked No0c2,459$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No10c2,418$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.99147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+165%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No29c2,305$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.36742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f0d…db1dbacked No5c2,280$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43f6…5e2dbacked No12c2,275$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes60c2,245$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+39.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe85c…ed6bbacked No1c2,136$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc3…0670backed No24c2,094$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No2c2,037$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.09280%0 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No1c2,005$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.88841.2%1 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick8cpaid-98.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked No3c2,002$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.17260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea63…06fabacked No3c1,986$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x269a…f6bfbacked No9c1,951$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes70c1,876$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.63650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1232…6158backed No1c1,836$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed No29c1,826$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.17616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-61.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1083…be16backed Yes57c1,802$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No2c1,777$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.83260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d1b…5adbbacked Yes70c1,723$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ae…7347backed No30c1,667$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes74c1,595$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6f…0e5fbacked No41c1,550$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62850%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No12c1,514$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.124548.9%22 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes68c1,471$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.841421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-62%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd640…480cbacked No5c1,452$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.49714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-71.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e5…48dbbacked Yes69c1,451$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82a…be8cbacked No21c1,423$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe622…a6debacked No43c1,392$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ef…812cbacked No2c1,375$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.121225%3 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-66%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1b9…2671backed No33c1,345$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked No3c1,345$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-53.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4929…2c0dbacked No33c1,319$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Yes77c1,303$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x669d…19b0backed No32c1,292$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.361136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+16.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No23c1,290$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.86185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-80.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81f0…71edbacked No30c1,286$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.211040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75c5…af5dbacked No43c1,225$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No27c1,223$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.611915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-78.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b29…ebaebacked Yes45c1,212$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes63c1,189$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.77837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8f…b920backed Yes65c1,183$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No17c1,145$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.245731.6%18 W · 39 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-51.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x87a8…445cbacked Yes76c1,144$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb8…ec8dbacked Yes68c1,123$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed No4c1,088$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.171216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-77%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a80…cfdcbacked Yes61c1,088$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No58c1,087$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.07425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No4c1,070$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.86520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0f…46f2backed Yes74c1,051$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe821…b27ebacked Yes54c1,045$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26dd…f6b9backed No37c1,040$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-74.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No2c1,037$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.83110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e88…df66backed No46c1,022$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes68c1,018$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.282548%12 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed No40c1,007$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.91333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+205.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.