IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c01bea9b869ca2acb0c28efa8bbaba184f807c3c3cd9bccaad9e6022dfc8a19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $317,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $329,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $317,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 1c | 40,000$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked No | 0c | 27,894$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 3c | 13,000$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 5c | 11,705$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 11,681$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.56 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 9,377$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…af41backed No | 2c | 7,430$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 5c | 5,199$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.06 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed No | 2c | 4,456$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 12c | 3,497$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8a…d6b2backed No | 13c | 3,180$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 3c | 3,116$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed No | 1c | 2,995$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 2,009$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…0e8bbacked No | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…06fabacked No | 2c | 1,878$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb2…cb9abacked No | 11c | 1,869$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f6…5e2dbacked No | 10c | 1,860$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 4c | 1,622$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…e86dbacked No | 6c | 1,598$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,557$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dde…d725backed No | 7c | 1,549$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.17 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 6c | 1,300$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 7c | 1,234$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…be8cbacked No | 12c | 999.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…8dfcbacked No | 10c | 960.06$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…fa31backed No | 3c | 837.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 4c | 809.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked No | 1c | 807.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 3c | 748.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…3d5fbacked No | 4c | 721.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 4c | 671.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 2c | 618$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked No | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…7ccebacked No | 3c | 581.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 573.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed No | 10c | 526.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked No | 5c | 438.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f43…68d8backed No | 12c | 432.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…e648backed No | 8c | 379.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 3c | 330.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…72e4backed No | 16c | 310.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked No | 3c | 305$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 3cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b96…3a38backed No | 10c | 294.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 6c | 246.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8b…fb33backed No | 12c | 241.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 17c | 218.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked No | 6c | 209.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8f…7946backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 9c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51c3…c0dcbacked No | 6c | 192.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 8c | 187$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 9c | 170.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0411…3ecdbacked No | 6c | 169.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8daa…ca69backed No | 7c | 161.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked No | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…b76bbacked No | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed Yes | 60c | 148.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39bc…f994backed No | 8c | 130.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…ea7cbacked No | 8c | 129.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…840ebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 11c | 93.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…c276backed Yes | 76c | 85.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 37c | 71.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x791d…f82fbacked No | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe04e…559abacked Yes | 79c | 50.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4632…193abacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked No | 37c | 33.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…4ef0backed Yes | 65c | 28.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3c…718fbacked Yes | 80c | 25.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f7…7bd9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff0f…c5efbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?this page
- Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.