TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$906,313
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$947,513

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $906,313 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5e5…48dbbacked Yes1c132,831$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dfe…0a5ebacked Yes3c83,035$2,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2981010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-41.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c58,874$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.67190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes1c39,999$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.33517.1%6 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9577…7744backed Yes0c36,262$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f13…be56backed Yes10c24,041$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,460250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+203.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc76…0ad0backed Yes13c16,415$2,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,141.24757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+30.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x027e…c97fbacked Yes0c11,700$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13c9…7cc4backed Yes2c10,410$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes0c10,383$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.15540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-38.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7081…818bbacked Yes1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef22…8c02backed Yes1c10,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes0c8,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick2cpaid+548.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4907…cdc2backed Yes0c7,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes7c7,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb17e…0436backed Yes8c6,114$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf530…50bfbacked Yes1c5,650$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes1c5,515$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes4c5,072$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.65666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+166.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No65c4,806$3,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,701.964548.9%22 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x45c0…d5cdbacked Yes3c4,756$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+89.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5bf…8763backed Yes2c3,998$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c22…0960backed Yes0c3,790$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes1c3,054$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes1c2,837$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick3cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes3c2,619$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.31300%0 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe81e…b1f5backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d1…4b1cbacked Yes3c2,452$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42ae…f9d0backed Yes2c2,151$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes3c1,968$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.341020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+115.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c1,896$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.061118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3797…8be6backed Yes1c1,815$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c1,750$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+165%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dde…d725backed Yes1c1,732$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.39147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-86.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c1,721$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.144418.2%8 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-71.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6d…5539backed Yes6c1,585$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes1c1,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6280%0 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c1,460$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.32260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes5c1,457$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.01100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes1c1,425$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.09110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,415$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.721274.7%6 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-83.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c8…d8adbacked Yes2c1,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,284$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.12841.2%1 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick8cpaid-98.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes1c1,240$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.011926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88e0…0849backed Yes9c1,140$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes3c1,001$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.78837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e09…d448backed Yes1c900$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c891.04$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.64333%1 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31b…5f28backed Yes11c885.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes2c818.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.211010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-81.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d10…2b21backed Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fc…42a0backed Yes3c656.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes2c600$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes2c550.87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.343339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2662…b74cbacked Yes2c528$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2241…50d2backed Yes9c514.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x038d…d501backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ce2…5f90backed Yes10c500$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked No54c499.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2302100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x714c…acd0backed Yes2c476.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c67…29dbbacked Yes5c400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes9c340.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes6c340$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.74210%0 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9849…2ee5backed Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5db4…5b2fbacked Yes5c299.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf72e…3e64backed Yes7c298.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a79…0ea7backed Yes3c295$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes13c241.66$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.582142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes5c232.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.214829.2%14 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf8…2094backed Yes6c220$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-43.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2941…dad2backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe6e1…6579backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes10c175.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.13837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes10c166.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-73.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes16c151.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.66563.6%2 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick10cpaid-79%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47fc…8d6bbacked No72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8b…2ceebacked Yes12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9cf7…ecb3backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeceb…d7fbbacked No80c87.44$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3933…7818backed No77c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No79c59.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e14…82a5backed Yes21c55.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes22c49.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.691833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed No79c39.27$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.28650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.12055%11 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.