TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,403,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,844,096

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,403,933 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 10,230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes36c2,366,042$849,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849,217.462711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed No61c289,801$177,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,466.614057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed No80c274,201$218,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,424.242871.4%20 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes50c270,876$135,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135,441.961769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked No48c208,092$98,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109,234.0317454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Yes18c198,125$36,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,059.733976.9%30 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes17c196,776$33,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,073.941809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c5f…5eb7backed No77c193,000$149,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,9463100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x374e…1d9fbacked Yes52c149,738$78,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,123.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes16c130,560$20,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,315.959724.7%24 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes16c130,353$20,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,248.2215722.3%35 W · 122 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x318e…4703backed Yes19c122,539$23,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,456.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9001…5b7abacked Yes19c117,345$22,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,463.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0078…c9cdbacked Yes15c114,288$16,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,594.11742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb762…a604backed Yes19c108,737$20,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,678.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba6…d42cbacked Yes19c108,233$20,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,667.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc35e…8868backed Yes44c107,472$47,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,624.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Yes15c106,712$15,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,787.59949.5%49 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc82…4bc1backed Yes19c106,144$20,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,280.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88d2…746bbacked Yes19c102,184$19,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,522.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15c6…c9dcbacked Yes20c100,590$20,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,603.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes52c98,123$51,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,184.692744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd9…c3e5backed Yes20c95,087$18,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,763.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd92…bb8ebacked Yes20c94,879$18,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,753.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked No47c85,130$40,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,747.15100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+72.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x54c5…2c57backed Yes23c82,049$19,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,247.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a97…6ee3backed Yes19c77,939$14,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,813.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d2…eef3backed Yes19c77,897$14,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,800.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes17c74,341$12,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,936.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aff…e954backed No48c72,538$34,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,608.55580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b2d…e88abacked No77c65,000$49,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,2101100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3731…cca9backed Yes23c65,000$15,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,21010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes25c64,706$16,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,345.0425643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3eb4…5821backed No77c64,000$49,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,528475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42d8…148bbacked Yes23c64,000$14,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,52810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeefb…7aaabacked No77c64,000$49,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,6561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3899…3347backed Yes23c64,000$14,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,65610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7451…982dbacked Yes22c64,000$14,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,08010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f4…9773backed No77c64,000$49,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,5281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb2…c4fcbacked No78c64,000$49,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,0801100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes23c60,000$14,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,047.0630446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Yes20c59,117$12,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,071.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes16c57,812$9,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,2525724.6%14 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes29c53,721$15,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,508.514546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…3e11backed No69c46,154$31,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,268.172100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes24c44,971$10,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,599.73818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9149…0f59backed Yes52c44,274$23,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,216.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x624a…901fbacked Yes18c43,953$7,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,907.11118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-65.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c26…4f84backed Yes20c43,283$8,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,543.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb2…dfddbacked Yes23c42,969$9,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,786.96742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+50.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09fa…2d68backed Yes17c40,599$6,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,863.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa71…44b0backed Yes52c40,157$21,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,042.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba61…5b0abacked Yes19c38,494$7,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,414.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5735…f1f7backed Yes52c38,439$19,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,916.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes22c36,857$8,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,062.4222434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes20c35,421$7,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,147.41014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes23c34,773$8,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,103.27123.9%17 W · 54 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b4…b7dbbacked No47c34,080$16,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,992.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc07…5e08backed Yes17c34,010$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,800911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x419d…ab2ebacked Yes20c33,857$6,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,619.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac39…7cbabacked Yes20c33,701$6,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,644.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa501…9f0fbacked Yes35c31,747$11,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,114.25641.1%23 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecbd…21d7backed Yes19c31,265$5,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,922.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a12…01cebacked Yes17c29,386$4,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,966.484351.2%22 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Yes52c28,081$14,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,602.234134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd72d…37debacked Yes20c24,878$4,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa741…5c0dbacked No48c24,112$11,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,559.542100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4da…d6eabacked Yes19c23,506$4,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,507.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d7…096cbacked Yes20c22,834$4,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,535.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc31d…80cabacked Yes20c22,467$4,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,507.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Yes53c22,358$11,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,756.549259.8%55 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes17c22,261$3,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,877.456832.4%22 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef3…c555backed Yes29c22,011$6,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,305.083531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes18c21,960$4,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,043.0852828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes16c21,926$3,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,400.64623.9%11 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a62…ae3abacked Yes20c21,835$4,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,324.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x475d…6250backed Yes20c20,815$4,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,132.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd87…f55ebacked Yes31c20,722$6,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,499.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked No48c20,000$9,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,496.624047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x068f…0084backed Yes20c19,826$3,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,916.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9710…230dbacked Yes19c19,667$3,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,778.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83de…fe62backed Yes19c19,607$3,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,744.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8463…fccdbacked Yes19c19,317$3,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,733.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a00…22e6backed Yes53c18,912$9,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,997.73250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f2…73b9backed Yes20c18,776$3,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,694.230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…6e56backed Yes20c18,732$3,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,653.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e30…3895backed Yes44c18,684$8,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,285.2320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes49c18,498$8,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,983.04922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea0…35eabacked Yes20c18,399$3,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,702.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a2…6af8backed Yes16c18,314$2,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,917.2512570.4%88 W · 37 L+12.8wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+15.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x930c…71dabacked Yes19c18,187$3,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,491.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes34c17,184$5,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,851.2116226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x29f9…65bbbacked Yes19c16,934$3,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,290.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71a7…11cdbacked Yes19c16,890$3,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,270.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5372…d2f9backed Yes17c16,672$2,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,910.94812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9abb…1494backed Yes19c16,450$3,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,072.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b7…eb22backed Yes53c16,155$8,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,506.55540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ca…5830backed Yes19c15,928$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002825%7 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed16…ad27backed Yes31c15,926$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaafd…dd54backed Yes33c15,752$5,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,201250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.