TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,228,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,764,359

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,228,741 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 399 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc63d…d3d9backed Yes0c2,492,366$9,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,969.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5da…c494backed Yes0c2,492,366$9,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,969.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x948b…8ae0backed Yes0c1,768,330$7,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,073.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e1a…bc2cbacked Yes0c1,768,329$7,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,073.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdc…77b0backed Yes0c1,739,988$6,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,959.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e0d…f561backed Yes0c1,710,988$6,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,843.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe796…7ae2backed Yes0c1,651,202$6,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,604.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0594…22f4backed Yes0c1,651,202$6,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,604.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xece6…6ab9backed Yes0c1,441,900$5,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,767.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd3…b500backed Yes0c1,413,062$5,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,652.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3d7…6292backed Yes0c1,355,850$5,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,423.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ad…b9bdbacked Yes0c1,327,008$5,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,308.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd54…ae9abacked Yes0c1,257,124$5,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,028.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x576d…1ef9backed Yes0c1,228,553$4,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,914.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e52…4a38backed Yes0c1,222,494$4,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,889.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5b…4903backed Yes0c1,222,494$4,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,889.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6346…a2ccbacked Yes0c1,192,895$4,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,771.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…e0a7backed Yes0c1,192,895$4,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,771.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b1…4b41backed Yes0c971,822$3,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,887.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09f6…2ec4backed Yes0c971,822$3,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,887.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e70…17c0backed Yes0c893,792$3,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,575.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcef0…71a6backed Yes0c864,960$3,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,459.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeec3…f984backed Yes0c745,990$2,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,983.96250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick1cpaid+1,900%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfce…872dbacked Yes0c745,956$2,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,983.82250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick1cpaid+1,900%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ee4…e384backed Yes0c546,043$2,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,184.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes1c519,084$4,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,316.749240.2%37 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b0e…f9bbbacked Yes0c517,356$2,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,069.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bc1…6fe7backed Yes1c350,196$1,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.98333%1 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-94.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c328,163$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.191014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c144,962$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.151769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x422e…7864backed Yes0c115,176$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3ed…09fcbacked Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e61…9860backed Yes0c100,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde91…9803backed Yes0c90,558$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1c8…dea5backed Yes0c86,382$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes1c55,075$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.686541.5%27 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73b2…67d1backed Yes2c54,906$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bae…1854backed Yes1c52,122$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0821…005ebacked Yes1c52,074$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d68…b89dbacked Yes1c52,023$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb14…a155backed Yes1c51,795$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92e2…7bbbbacked Yes1c51,734$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3c…4127backed Yes1c51,734$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f3…d86cbacked Yes1c50,975$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3999…be6dbacked Yes1c50,974$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c44,623$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.942430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes1c43,890$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.45464.3%2 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes1c43,254$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.8615722.3%35 W · 122 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes0c37,768$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0816226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes2c37,674$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.7330446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Yes1c36,579$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.062313%3 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes1c30,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013217.4%23 W · 109 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+104.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8538…cd51backed Yes1c27,600$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.08333%1 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebbb…8e9fbacked Yes1c27,500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3700…265bbacked Yes1c26,192$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe30f…c83cbacked Yes1c25,365$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbef4…92c8backed Yes1c25,365$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7f2…1f38backed Yes1c24,187$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34d2…dcdabacked Yes1c23,836$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e3…f0f3backed Yes1c22,699$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cc0…4427backed Yes1c22,570$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaed2…8e93backed Yes1c20,517$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4b5…e8a3backed Yes1c19,800$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eb6…b8afbacked Yes2c19,499$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6623…f9f3backed Yes1c18,900$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78f4…bf5abacked Yes2c18,344$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c7b…f474backed Yes0c18,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49557.3%4 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a50…791bbacked Yes1c17,682$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6148…7fe4backed Yes1c17,122$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ed7…1f19backed Yes1c16,622$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba62…c1b0backed Yes1c16,518$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…96b1backed Yes1c16,375$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9df5…db5abacked Yes1c16,131$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bbf…2a2cbacked Yes1c16,049$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01d8…b3a0backed Yes1c16,036$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f92…f295backed Yes1c15,961$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee6…0cb4backed Yes1c15,956$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeae…54fcbacked Yes1c15,940$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46ff…3e5fbacked Yes1c15,864$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6de8…f535backed Yes1c15,839$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe49…f082backed Yes1c15,800$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4350…6676backed Yes1c15,800$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe778…1ce6backed Yes1c15,786$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b1…4638backed Yes1c15,774$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849f…8eeebacked Yes1c15,730$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x114e…9af3backed Yes1c15,607$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa2…30bebacked Yes1c15,505$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a71…9fd3backed Yes1c15,500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb981…6509backed Yes1c15,420$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9537…6436backed Yes1c15,400$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea50…cdd9backed Yes1c15,400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c9…891abacked Yes1c15,284$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b0…553abacked Yes1c15,276$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.4830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c15,217$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.951061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92e5…6929backed Yes1c15,207$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x495f…e044backed Yes1c15,207$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e80…eb1fbacked Yes1c15,164$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf383…5286backed Yes1c15,111$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda9b…6616backed Yes1c15,100$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58cb…1d05backed Yes1c15,100$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.