TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,528,261
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,727,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,528,261 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 991 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes8c508,300$38,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,960.712711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes2c429,780$6,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,976.549240.2%37 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes2c429,152$6,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,492.631014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5423…9d4cbacked Yes1c317,028$3,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,057.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc88…e222backed Yes10c237,479$24,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,442.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b9e…74aebacked Yes2c232,035$4,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,856.714621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bc1…6fe7backed Yes2c176,812$3,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,536.23333%1 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-94.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes2c176,636$4,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,215.545724.6%14 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x941b…d05abacked Yes3c171,395$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,600933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes2c126,399$2,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.3615722.3%35 W · 122 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes2c124,484$2,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,147.551769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6e8…2867backed Yes2c121,707$1,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,877.358910.1%9 W · 80 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes5c113,165$5,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,488.543818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14dd…13eebacked Yes2c102,128$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.15385.3%2 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cc3…2f17backed Yes2c98,536$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,784.4380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b9…24e1backed Yes1c90,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501010%1 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes10c84,600$8,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,735.794546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes2c83,644$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.4316226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes1c76,419$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.6916036.3%58 W · 102 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ff3…7d00backed Yes3c74,240$2,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,228.44327.9%12 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes2c70,459$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.03140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f65…9524backed Yes3c66,951$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes8c64,911$5,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,229.271969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb362…d5ffbacked Yes1c61,526$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32eb…3086backed Yes1c61,253$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b65…8b0abacked Yes1c61,211$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777e…e06bbacked Yes1c61,146$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a68…cff7backed Yes1c61,137$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf859…5f2abacked Yes1c61,070$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e61…9860backed Yes1c61,029$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.66166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f82…2ddebacked Yes1c60,895$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c13…ac1fbacked Yes1c60,542$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd65a…1d11backed Yes1c60,446$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbee…903bbacked Yes1c60,429$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ce…f926backed Yes1c60,363$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x034c…a157backed Yes1c60,258$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…1c9bbacked Yes1c60,225$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc805…4b39backed Yes1c60,134$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc9f…6820backed Yes1c60,122$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca7…291fbacked Yes1c60,089$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes2c60,000$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.4130446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ab…94e8backed Yes1c59,860$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6862…e2fdbacked Yes1c59,748$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ea…cf0fbacked Yes1c59,698$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c7…518bbacked Yes1c59,609$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde5b…ffb3backed Yes1c59,555$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5184…967bbacked Yes1c59,518$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02fe…3e05backed Yes1c59,493$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c9…d37ebacked Yes1c59,469$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb76c…d50dbacked Yes1c59,350$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x085a…5d5abacked Yes1c59,081$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13cc…de3cbacked Yes1c59,044$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbf0…590ebacked Yes1c58,999$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21be…0289backed Yes1c58,971$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9be3…7e41backed Yes1c58,960$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x773e…5ae7backed Yes1c58,877$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8e…b1cbbacked Yes1c58,694$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4367…054cbacked Yes1c58,685$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba21…695abacked Yes1c58,489$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f3f…dc43backed Yes1c58,476$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a6…e05ebacked Yes1c58,412$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ee1…987bbacked Yes1c58,390$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94c0…bb8abacked Yes1c58,349$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf40f…e2b6backed Yes1c58,186$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacfd…f226backed Yes1c58,115$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74dd…a9b8backed Yes1c57,731$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x281e…ca4ebacked Yes1c57,699$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbba1…c0cfbacked Yes1c57,656$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae14…5ddcbacked Yes1c57,177$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c8…0b68backed Yes1c56,853$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Yes10c56,766$5,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,827.199245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ec…e125backed Yes1c56,685$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6355…43b3backed Yes1c56,394$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bcf…a1e7backed Yes1c56,216$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92ac…73aebacked Yes1c56,046$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5d5…43ecbacked Yes1c56,003$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0578…73fdbacked Yes11c56,000$5,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,93610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff7…c3b2backed Yes1c55,956$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39e0…3542backed Yes1c55,691$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a09…7a54backed Yes1c55,242$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa845…2307backed Yes11c54,256$5,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,751.861850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4457…45e2backed Yes1c52,414$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x984a…7e1fbacked Yes1c52,278$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x998e…73e0backed Yes1c52,220$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa21a…d7b6backed Yes1c52,084$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5608…40e0backed Yes1c52,022$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e3…a7dbbacked Yes1c51,976$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b9…9167backed Yes1c51,709$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1e…59adbacked Yes1c51,695$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf58e…f9c6backed Yes1c51,587$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2731…4d10backed Yes1c51,548$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb558…740abacked Yes1c51,429$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf65f…6e1abacked Yes1c51,414$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2511…2d52backed Yes1c51,377$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf252…5e83backed Yes1c51,036$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9988…caa6backed Yes1c50,908$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa375…be1bbacked Yes1c50,886$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3afa…14c0backed Yes1c50,870$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a28…db79backed Yes1c50,825$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775b…4889backed Yes1c50,813$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.