TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,217,169
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,819,337

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,217,169 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8bba…9b86backed Yes0c776,142$3,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,018.39160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c299,999$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.993930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-54.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes0c285,897$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.156541.5%27 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes3c257,137$8,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,482.49240.2%37 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bc1…6fe7backed Yes2c239,356$5,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,505.19333%1 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-94.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c220,627$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.811769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x980e…7e06backed Yes0c208,118$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.42454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+74%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d0b…4f4dbacked Yes0c185,468$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.87342.9%1 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-78.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Yes4c108,362$4,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,390.889949.5%49 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f4…9170backed Yes1c99,440$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274d…47cdbacked Yes1c99,417$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x407f…47e8backed Yes1c98,046$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c3d…4f92backed Yes1c96,501$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd932…b530backed Yes1c95,687$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x062d…a3cdbacked Yes1c95,657$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23bb…8b03backed Yes1c95,282$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1fd…bd1bbacked Yes1c94,967$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x190f…ed92backed Yes1c93,903$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ec…3de6backed Yes1c93,823$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6937…a091backed Yes1c93,809$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff1…db51backed Yes1c93,730$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc95f…7076backed Yes1c93,447$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ff…ad31backed Yes1c93,101$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69b8…f4edbacked Yes1c92,924$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd32c…0e01backed Yes1c92,720$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c77…5318backed Yes1c92,688$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf8d…b7fcbacked Yes1c92,547$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb56…818bbacked Yes1c92,540$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba9…6dc8backed Yes1c92,235$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe5c…7a00backed Yes1c90,998$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2594…e54bbacked Yes1c90,633$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5fb…1124backed Yes1c90,092$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e13…3b6fbacked Yes1c89,806$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e36…e408backed Yes1c89,703$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc81b…ab52backed Yes1c88,966$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff28…7c7cbacked Yes1c88,816$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1f5…a598backed Yes1c88,019$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x341e…7c86backed Yes1c86,429$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e09…9b0dbacked Yes1c85,480$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes4c85,000$3,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,316.532638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick26cpaid-20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3077…02b3backed Yes0c77,777$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.1190%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8db9…6d9ebacked Yes1c57,824$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c39,800$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.21061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc727…e52bbacked Yes0c35,296$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8538…cd51backed Yes1c30,040$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.59333%1 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c7b…f474backed Yes0c29,000$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47557.3%4 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc16c…a6f9backed Yes5c28,679$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dcb…062fbacked Yes5c28,571$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.4350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb3a7…e661backed Yes4c25,828$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Yes0c25,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756540%26 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes4c24,309$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.6615722.3%35 W · 122 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Yes3c23,471$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.562313%3 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8371…06febacked Yes4c22,787$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.344318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+68.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2f2…56e1backed Yes4c21,622$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f95…49c0backed Yes4c21,081$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c20,500$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5667.6%5 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a34…11dfbacked Yes4c20,270$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes0c20,122$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.212711.1%3 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-80.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b6…fa3dbacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2dc…a4c7backed Yes4c18,919$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5912…b64cbacked Yes0c18,449$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f16…5327backed Yes1c18,200$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ff…48a1backed Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6887…0b51backed Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde46…9ce4backed Yes0c17,900$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0037…5c64backed Yes3c16,637$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes4c15,203$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.685036%18 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0274…307bbacked Yes3c15,000$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3952714.8%4 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-54.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c14,956$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.82442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-93.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a7a…1f18backed Yes5c14,286$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ccf…15a2backed Yes5c14,286$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes0c13,904$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9254%1 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid-72.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26f1…a009backed Yes3c13,866$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92dd…5c0dbacked Yes4c13,514$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+706.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c12,732$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.52430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x241c…79cebacked Yes0c11,850$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6504…91e2backed Yes0c11,195$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a69…927dbacked Yes0c10,827$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefee…9bc4backed Yes0c10,700$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a6…ac79backed Yes0c10,683$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2975…f67abacked Yes0c10,650$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x952c…6c5fbacked Yes0c10,505$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x517e…4d44backed Yes0c10,501$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1b…72d8backed Yes0c10,310$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9989…442fbacked Yes0c10,270$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Yes5c10,204$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x78cc…6063backed Yes0c10,200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ce…4430backed Yes1c10,150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad33…50bfbacked Yes0c10,100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfd…67cebacked Yes0c10,100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5186…7c05backed Yes0c10,092$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6947…edc2backed Yes0c10,075$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1c…14d3backed Yes0c10,049$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ec5…f058backed Yes0c10,025$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cef…4d83backed Yes0c10,016$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914f…a495backed Yes0c10,009$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ede…a4cebacked Yes4c10,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b5b…890abacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4056…63c4backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde98…4e70backed Yes1c9,452$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.