TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,889,785
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,869,467

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,889,785 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,060 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c1,812,421$6,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,553.521014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5814…aeabbacked Yes1c504,692$3,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,888.7420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e7…a343backed Yes0c485,872$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.6130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes3c281,390$7,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,836.879240.2%37 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes0c240,611$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.451414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-70%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bc1…6fe7backed Yes2c231,773$5,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,330.78333%1 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-94.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc924…1057backed Yes1c212,744$2,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,564.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes0c140,605$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.81140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes0c120,492$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.97911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-82.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x753b…fac5backed Yes1c118,922$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46cc…32ccbacked Yes1c118,847$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd56b…8e45backed Yes1c118,723$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca00…5d0cbacked Yes1c118,316$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb4a…3e23backed Yes1c117,466$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7291…102abacked Yes1c117,239$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f1f…00cebacked Yes1c116,799$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7520…9ffebacked Yes1c116,494$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4705…0067backed Yes1c116,447$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2220…932ebacked Yes1c116,431$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a4a…2c42backed Yes1c115,322$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01d7…b65fbacked Yes1c115,270$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1278…0d62backed Yes1c115,201$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0818…686bbacked Yes1c115,016$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a5…2fabbacked Yes1c114,235$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c55…4569backed Yes1c114,149$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf057…2c0ebacked Yes1c113,547$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e4b…10cbbacked Yes1c113,474$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x766c…f10abacked Yes1c113,076$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3a7…e661backed Yes3c112,068$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1003522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbe7…de4abacked Yes1c111,964$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05fb…2989backed Yes1c111,950$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x658c…1347backed Yes1c111,538$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x886f…7638backed Yes1c111,482$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ddf…6091backed Yes1c111,388$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe584…e5a3backed Yes1c111,372$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x307b…e5dabacked Yes1c110,476$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd115…64f5backed Yes1c110,292$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d58…93b1backed Yes1c109,220$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc551…f9dabacked Yes1c108,717$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e3…5542backed Yes1c108,671$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b09…5d2cbacked Yes1c108,242$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc5d…ee86backed Yes1c107,924$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafa2…36d9backed Yes1c107,587$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3ae…2a04backed Yes1c106,977$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e61…9860backed Yes1c105,444$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b4…c3c0backed Yes1c103,220$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x515e…bd28backed Yes1c103,013$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c42…ebcbbacked Yes1c102,698$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf40…2fe8backed Yes1c102,028$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x456d…1645backed Yes1c101,320$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4534…a239backed Yes1c101,134$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x924c…07dabacked Yes1c100,181$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0b0…f7cbbacked Yes1c99,999$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes0c99,998$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.99185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+208.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe035…2140backed Yes1c99,823$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeae8…606abacked Yes1c99,687$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dcd…aae2backed Yes1c99,658$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272b…9f65backed Yes1c99,494$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe148…125abacked Yes1c99,152$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb607…f333backed Yes1c98,911$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d28…ae5bbacked Yes1c98,773$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48dc…fb3dbacked Yes1c98,752$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ead…caa3backed Yes1c98,331$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bba…9b86backed Yes1c98,287$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.96160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1023…0b94backed Yes1c97,581$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe84…0500backed Yes1c97,436$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b9…3a34backed Yes1c97,422$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f49…b74bbacked Yes1c97,365$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f1e…0b02backed Yes1c97,231$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d5…36c5backed Yes1c97,170$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6a…d232backed Yes1c97,166$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes1c96,886$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.514837.2%55 W · 93 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e50…1b8cbacked Yes1c96,686$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ba…18c5backed Yes1c96,454$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64bf…6bc8backed Yes1c96,404$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0e8…d083backed Yes1c96,165$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3076…b18bbacked Yes1c96,033$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd847…c950backed Yes1c95,839$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49af…1c93backed Yes1c95,828$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcadf…de7dbacked Yes1c95,634$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567e…0015backed Yes1c95,384$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd16b…d37abacked Yes1c94,860$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a6…6332backed Yes1c94,724$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x725b…7ebcbacked Yes1c93,849$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbab2…e48abacked Yes1c93,403$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a62…95acbacked Yes1c91,505$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b3…7289backed Yes1c91,261$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b95…136fbacked Yes1c90,899$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9351553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6032…61f2backed Yes1c90,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x353c…eaabbacked Yes1c87,947$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbcc…3ce1backed Yes1c85,595$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d5…fc10backed Yes1c85,276$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c6…aa24backed Yes1c84,759$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes1c83,786$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.916226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x871a…cd33backed Yes1c83,772$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaccf…003ebacked Yes1c83,747$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a3…f95cbacked Yes1c83,731$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b5e…91a6backed Yes1c83,423$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b51…9930backed Yes1c83,203$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92a4…cbb4backed Yes1c83,140$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.