TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$123,969,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,072,318

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,969,933 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 665 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x463e…664ebacked Yes0c3,480,854$9,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,747.09180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c07…a7e4backed Yes0c2,049,438$6,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,148.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc58…71acbacked Yes0c2,049,438$6,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,148.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d3…ef16backed Yes0c1,901,916$5,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,705.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd2…41c6backed Yes0c1,901,916$5,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,705.7530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x680e…9fdbbacked Yes0c1,612,708$4,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,838.1260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d7e…56b6backed Yes0c1,502,721$4,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,508.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3a3…de34backed Yes0c1,502,692$4,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,508.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x344b…6e91backed Yes0c1,500,045$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,500.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec60…981bbacked Yes0c1,482,015$4,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,446.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a73…5e49backed Yes0c1,481,172$4,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,443.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0ff…200bbacked Yes0c1,481,061$4,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,443.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b0…a4d8backed Yes0c1,433,600$4,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,300.860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe717…f03bbacked Yes0c1,425,130$4,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,275.3940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df2…0210backed Yes0c1,371,529$4,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,114.5930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5495…ea4dbacked Yes0c1,356,298$4,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,068.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea40…eb06backed Yes0c1,318,662$3,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,955.9950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e74…22b1backed Yes0c1,299,976$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd62…3966backed Yes0c1,299,954$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0abe…6127backed Yes0c1,299,257$3,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,897.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b57…4959backed Yes0c1,299,229$3,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,897.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab59…ea9abacked Yes0c1,289,641$3,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,946.83351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c1,251,193$2,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.371769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x553a…6144backed Yes0c1,240,296$3,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,720.8940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2761…0695backed Yes0c1,232,234$3,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,696.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3495…1075backed Yes0c1,212,670$3,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,638.0130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x600f…3687backed Yes0c1,199,480$3,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,598.4430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2229…32d2backed Yes0c1,197,999$3,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,59430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e5…d55bbacked Yes0c1,153,295$3,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,459.8840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes0c1,142,518$2,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,275.676541.5%27 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cb8…0ba5backed Yes0c1,107,621$3,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,322.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc078…8361backed Yes0c1,071,830$3,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,215.4940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfcb…b4f6backed Yes0c980,217$2,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,940.6560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde6f…dc09backed Yes0c918,474$2,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,755.4250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9c9…fb20backed Yes0c864,814$2,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,594.4440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c4…ece8backed Yes0c833,461$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.3830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c20…e896backed Yes0c814,636$2,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,443.9160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec86…1117backed Yes0c682,261$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,046.7830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7238…1ffbbacked Yes0c577,120$1,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,731.3650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c0a…53c9backed Yes0c545,741$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.231435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-48.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd4…0957backed Yes0c539,523$1,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.5760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1880…5f26backed Yes0c517,986$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,553.96825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-55.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd889…7ddbbacked Yes0c514,832$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,544.550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0222…2307backed Yes0c511,602$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.8160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c510,944$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.023930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-54.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes0c483,460$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,145.89240.2%37 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf74…0fcabacked Yes0c444,502$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.51170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b40…01e7backed Yes0c442,757$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.2760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3264…c2f2backed Yes0c430,683$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.0550%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb82b…d7f4backed Yes0c425,511$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.5370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb65…ec9abacked Yes0c415,740$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.2240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf80…554bbacked Yes0c409,309$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.93922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-60%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da2…b9b3backed Yes0c336,949$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.85825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-48%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3077…02b3backed Yes0c333,331$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.3390%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a3…b63cbacked Yes0c330,639$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.9260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c60…9a2abacked Yes0c253,858$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.5760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e09…c145backed Yes0c232,513$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.54837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea2a…1617backed Yes0c232,498$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.4960%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc07b…1849backed Yes0c232,498$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.491030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-55.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcedf…ba7ebacked Yes0c232,498$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.49812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick33cpaid-80.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7bc…915cbacked Yes0c232,363$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.09812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-79.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca81…d140backed Yes0c232,363$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.09714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-81.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb18a…b244backed Yes0c232,358$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.07728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-57%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abc…e0b3backed Yes0c232,325$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.98825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-62.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d2c…a14fbacked Yes0c226,145$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.4350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb98c…1227backed Yes0c220,220$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.6630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3a…b716backed Yes0c220,220$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.6660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6676…5f4abacked Yes0c219,555$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.6750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x947d…c69dbacked Yes0c219,044$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.1340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd12f…1befbacked Yes0c219,044$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.13728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85f8…bf1ebacked Yes0c218,947$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.8440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x440c…2858backed Yes0c218,651$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.95922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick14cpaid-53.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba6a…2605backed Yes0c218,475$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.42728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-55.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab3e…8210backed Yes0c218,446$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.34728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2400…34cfbacked Yes0c218,446$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.341040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b05…d173backed Yes0c218,405$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.211050%5 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82e8…8377backed Yes0c218,375$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.13837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ee…f1bebacked Yes0c217,897$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.6960%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3ac…d0bebacked Yes0c217,897$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.691050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaacd…a4d5backed Yes0c217,892$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.681040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f9b…3052backed Yes0c217,858$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.5740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f9…7139backed Yes0c217,852$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.5670%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cf3…f71bbacked Yes0c217,813$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.44728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62f1…f8b1backed Yes0c217,813$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.44742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid-20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fe2…afe8backed Yes0c217,813$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.44742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid-28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2231…8241backed Yes0c217,768$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.3633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick13cpaid-14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4792…ac6fbacked Yes0c217,721$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-77.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac8…7d0ebacked Yes0c217,707$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2cb…d03fbacked Yes0c217,684$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.05728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f7c…7672backed Yes0c217,631$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.89933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-52.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…7674backed Yes0c217,606$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.82922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9be2…d4f5backed Yes0c217,599$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.8837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5eb…8bcabacked Yes0c217,489$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.471030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa85b…fc32backed Yes0c215,387$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.16742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick23cpaid-19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x489a…feefbacked Yes0c215,387$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.1640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8022…51f7backed Yes0c215,371$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.11944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick28cpaid-14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc21e…5effbacked Yes0c215,341$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.021241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ef…c892backed Yes0c215,341$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.02933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ef…ba16backed Yes0c215,341$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.02728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick19cpaid-46%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9981…59c3backed Yes0c215,341$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.0250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.