TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,565,957
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,060,675

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,565,957 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 355 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes4c358,173$13,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,060.431014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes4c183,382$7,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,798.8115722.3%35 W · 122 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes4c135,206$4,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,740.2716226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes4c104,612$3,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,755.875724.6%14 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes5c103,354$5,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,096.492711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes3c84,221$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,710.351769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes6c80,000$4,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,470.0630446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes4c77,522$3,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,149.499724.7%24 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes6c77,000$4,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,475.197857.7%45 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b8e…014bbacked Yes4c69,229$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes3c66,128$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,032.2414837.2%55 W · 93 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a75…0783backed Yes4c52,000$2,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,28810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed7c…da06backed Yes3c43,413$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.694634.8%16 W · 30 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf84b…3e6cbacked Yes4c39,119$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.281225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f62…eb45backed Yes5c33,333$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.98616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick5cpaid+188.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14dd…13eebacked Yes3c33,131$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.96385.3%2 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes3c31,569$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.193818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf29f…c5d9backed Yes3c28,807$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.443125.8%8 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…bdf7backed Yes4c27,973$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.885332.1%17 W · 36 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-37.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe046…786bbacked Yes5c22,451$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes6c22,000$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23214248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes6c20,000$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,188.4113348.1%64 W · 69 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01eb…b78cbacked Yes5c19,149$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9254…3aaabacked Yes4c18,182$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ed…0b0dbacked Yes3c17,857$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9af5…5312backed Yes3c16,778$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002623.1%6 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+77.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes3c16,456$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.2915252.6%80 W · 72 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc07…5e08backed Yes6c16,218$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12a7…399bbacked Yes3c15,000$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.364311.6%5 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-65%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ebb…f148backed Yes3c14,934$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf258…783cbacked Yes4c14,458$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes4c14,210$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.55464.3%2 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c13,034$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.3652828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes4c12,739$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.6621713.8%30 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-50.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc69d…1262backed Yes3c12,444$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.444131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31cf…8834backed Yes3c11,607$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.422619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd37…b3a7backed Yes5c11,224$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49a…6d64backed Yes3c10,455$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+129.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b1…5b57backed Yes5c10,417$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f71…2f42backed Yes4c10,227$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8538…cd51backed Yes4c10,088$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.63333%1 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes5c9,901$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.3454.4%2 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-69.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe006…39b9backed Yes4c9,700$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.7128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7022…d143backed Yes4c9,101$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f7f…d053backed Yes4c9,091$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x228a…2ed0backed Yes6c8,705$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cfc…7f80backed Yes4c8,643$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.575628.6%16 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x506b…cc27backed Yes4c8,377$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31590%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes4c7,988$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.891809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes3c7,738$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.474623.9%11 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd707…2121backed Yes3c7,540$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.8290%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a18…b639backed Yes4c7,378$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.52462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6be…e346backed Yes4c6,630$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.241513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce4…b96ebacked Yes3c6,332$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c6,327$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.992430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fce…ea0fbacked Yes3c5,965$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.0230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51a…704cbacked Yes4c5,772$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+27.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x515c…fdaebacked Yes3c5,766$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4430…434ebacked Yes3c5,766$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes4c5,723$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23024738.1%94 W · 153 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf61b…f73ebacked Yes5c5,700$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.491625%4 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-56.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c97…d5b8backed Yes4c5,652$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.48425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd33a…2cc4backed Yes4c5,577$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505232.7%17 W · 35 L-6.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-38.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfac3…1b7bbacked Yes3c5,500$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.51020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-36.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca8…b1cabacked Yes3c5,500$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd9…4e7cbacked Yes3c5,481$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68f…22f4backed Yes5c5,435$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes4c5,131$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.8312022.5%27 W · 93 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf763…c36ebacked Yes6c5,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x176d…4a26backed Yes3c5,000$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165220%0 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x354b…53bebacked Yes3c5,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d5f…ad16backed Yes3c4,882$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d50…c6d3backed Yes4c4,748$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes2c4,698$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.381508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f05…6b19backed Yes3c4,224$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8514…2c81backed Yes3c4,106$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes3c4,043$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.49240.2%37 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes5c4,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006634.8%23 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes3c3,971$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0710937.6%41 W · 68 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+52%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e5…316dbacked Yes5c3,855$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.133520%7 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-54.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x774c…1b0ebacked Yes5c3,808$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x438d…3ec8backed Yes5c3,742$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.3950%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes4c3,660$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.037123.9%17 W · 54 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x217e…3a4cbacked Yes3c3,610$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.872857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed Yes3c3,586$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.972828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89e3…817ebacked Yes3c3,571$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa32b…3ed2backed Yes3c3,567$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.88333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe058…0bc3backed Yes2c3,565$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.051216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8599…bb74backed Yes4c3,563$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0e…399fbacked Yes5c3,545$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.01616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-73.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ecb…dab7backed Yes3c3,528$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a9…888fbacked Yes3c3,515$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x207a…6fecbacked Yes6c3,514$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.792729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7328…f742backed Yes6c3,509$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes3c3,500$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10727835.3%98 W · 180 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc543…ed07backed Yes3c3,438$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ce…ef9fbacked Yes3c3,247$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4298…f07dbacked Yes3c3,032$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32b9…24e1backed Yes5c3,000$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411010%1 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5b0…8e0dbacked Yes4c2,987$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.82185.6%1 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-48.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.