TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,428,419
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,233,473

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,428,419 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 412 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x463e…664ebacked Yes0c2,136,285$4,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,820.64180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c1,399,996$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.993930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-54.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c811,338$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.341769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes0c787,362$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785.46541.5%27 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes1c422,210$2,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,777.719240.2%37 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bba…9b86backed Yes0c338,394$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.39160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a37…91aabacked Yes0c319,333$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-73.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda7f…3495backed Yes0c296,525$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.5730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb519…81ecbacked Yes0c266,367$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a5…8ce6backed Yes0c218,200$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.37812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-74.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes1c167,587$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.255036%18 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b15…822cbacked Yes0c152,819$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.4650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96ad…683cbacked Yes0c150,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x980e…7e06backed Yes0c148,744$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.49454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+74%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abd…7525backed Yes0c148,552$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.6650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bc1…6fe7backed Yes0c143,300$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.2333%1 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-94.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9250…46ebbacked Yes0c137,208$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.6260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa66f…4e25backed Yes0c123,313$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.9450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa587…d91abacked Yes0c122,706$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c119,798$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.61061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0b…4f4dbacked Yes0c110,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280342.9%1 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-78.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x106a…f01bbacked Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x684b…0601backed Yes0c99,999$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Yes1c89,588$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.612313%3 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf084…11cdbacked Yes0c88,795$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.3850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x119a…2192backed Yes0c84,293$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dee…aad5backed Yes0c80,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-91.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c79,022$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.182430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c82…153cbacked Yes1c69,625$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dad…d99ebacked Yes0c63,098$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f67…5bbabacked Yes0c62,559$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48c6…dfe7backed Yes0c62,396$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ffa…f20abacked Yes0c61,771$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea5…f48bbacked Yes1c61,331$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc3f…1986backed Yes1c60,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cad…6b82backed Yes1c60,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0106…d3eebacked Yes1c60,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaff…825cbacked Yes1c59,973$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b4e…f3cabacked Yes0c56,170$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b55…7875backed Yes1c55,118$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72eb…8fbabacked Yes0c54,667$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8744…867bbacked Yes0c53,226$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.681241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad98…7a3fbacked Yes0c52,990$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.9730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ba…e182backed Yes0c52,704$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8b5…31e3backed Yes0c52,704$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7747…fcfdbacked Yes0c52,441$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc5…aaa7backed Yes0c52,180$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e9e…fff1backed Yes0c51,382$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa232…30cdbacked Yes0c51,256$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d41…ec92backed Yes0c51,235$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a42…75f0backed Yes0c51,235$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7829…f04abacked Yes0c51,182$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.5530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d2b…cdb3backed Yes1c51,173$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bc1…1272backed Yes0c50,680$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0470%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fa2…5c81backed Yes0c50,680$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf59d…cde0backed Yes0c50,680$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a78…1b63backed Yes0c50,680$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x060d…0f16backed Yes0c50,680$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79a6…4a33backed Yes0c50,680$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e2…35c2backed Yes0c50,680$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c53…3e81backed Yes0c50,680$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x758a…bf66backed Yes0c50,680$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5d5…9cc7backed Yes0c50,677$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2780…1d96backed Yes0c50,677$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fe…c7aabacked Yes0c50,677$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0370%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a70…2246backed Yes0c50,677$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5e7…c2b4backed Yes0c50,677$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…7e8cbacked Yes0c50,677$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc193…7481backed Yes0c50,601$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f6…c0d8backed Yes0c50,601$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b28…b163backed Yes0c50,601$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8ee…f5fcbacked Yes1c50,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d90…e2c4backed Yes1c50,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34f…e1bebacked Yes1c49,951$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0786…ba3bbacked Yes1c49,951$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6897…4070backed Yes1c49,815$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bdc…d95ebacked Yes0c49,100$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0428…93f8backed Yes0c48,234$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-75.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c0d…b261backed Yes0c48,234$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick6cpaid-66.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x038f…52d4backed Yes0c48,234$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e43…e366backed Yes0c48,230$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.69616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-67.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2354…0c17backed Yes0c48,230$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6960%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe108…2c6ebacked Yes0c48,230$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.69616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-73.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d7a…58d4backed Yes0c48,230$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9875…70f5backed Yes0c48,230$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.69616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-67.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567c…ae11backed Yes0c47,982$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3247…f3a8backed Yes0c47,703$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03fd…809abacked Yes0c47,703$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5671…6e56backed Yes0c47,703$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.11714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-72%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e7…0e78backed Yes0c47,703$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf458…c988backed Yes0c47,703$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1170%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f79…bc6bbacked Yes0c47,703$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ac2…87fbbacked Yes0c47,703$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86ea…72e7backed Yes0c47,703$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc04…01f1backed Yes0c47,703$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.11714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-72%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b14…9b0ebacked Yes0c47,703$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.11911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-70.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4584…8324backed Yes0c47,703$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb3…c151backed Yes0c47,703$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e5…279bbacked Yes0c47,703$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b6…4c57backed Yes0c47,677$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.