TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,300,683
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,748,474

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,300,683 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 627 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes1c4,605,328$68,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,097.771014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes1c619,511$4,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,888.581414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-70%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes1c324,806$3,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,501.22140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes6c220,254$12,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,214.249240.2%37 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cc3…2f17backed Yes1c210,155$2,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,470.3780%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ac…6e16backed Yes2c206,806$3,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,377.8170%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes3c189,664$4,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,942.215724.6%14 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x941b…d05abacked Yes2c187,918$3,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,957.1933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes1c186,165$2,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,492.2516226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c170,185$2,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,067.741769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes4c156,055$6,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,336.715722.3%35 W · 122 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14dd…13eebacked Yes2c141,589$2,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,452.25385.3%2 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bc1…6fe7backed Yes6c135,681$7,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,869.5333%1 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-94.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes1c118,016$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.033818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes2c102,155$2,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,177.48454.4%2 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-69.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bba…9b86backed Yes2c97,728$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.64160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes2c93,579$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.482711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e61…9860backed Yes1c90,024$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.54166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes1c88,999$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.99185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+208.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6032…61f2backed Yes2c76,069$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes0c73,499$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.5185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-82.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x390d…350bbacked Yes5c66,225$3,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,174.02147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef4…7ffbbacked Yes2c65,521$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.8350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes1c61,030$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.99128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-79.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c59,676$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.0952828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf15…53c8backed Yes2c57,295$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0601631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Yes2c56,749$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.391241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-44.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes4c56,741$2,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,371.239724.7%24 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f11…f72bbacked Yes1c52,441$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dea…6c6ebacked Yes1c52,388$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8538…cd51backed Yes1c52,097$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.18333%1 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e99…d9c2backed Yes1c51,682$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c6…df0ebacked Yes1c51,526$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ce3…50edbacked Yes1c51,352$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180f…d8e5backed Yes1c50,819$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5b3…8130backed Yes1c49,839$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa800…6524backed Yes1c49,275$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28e3…ce05backed Yes1c48,954$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4170…7df3backed Yes1c48,201$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc0f…0e36backed Yes1c47,598$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7973…06aebacked Yes1c47,097$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c46,856$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.21969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe013…f6fcbacked Yes1c46,437$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbabe…fe97backed Yes2c45,877$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f4…1b22backed Yes1c45,812$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x579f…23a0backed Yes1c45,704$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b42…3de4backed Yes1c45,261$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x413d…8970backed Yes1c45,154$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18b9…91f6backed Yes1c45,148$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes2c44,204$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.5222434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91ac…446ebacked Yes1c41,689$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes4c40,459$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.361809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes2c40,224$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.1614837.2%55 W · 93 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefba…9c01backed Yes1c34,508$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes1c32,615$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.7828433.1%94 W · 190 L-0.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd90…f978backed Yes1c32,188$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes5c30,001$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.0520246%93 W · 109 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61fd…8ae6backed Yes7c28,431$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc2…17a2backed Yes1c28,060$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes1c25,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20024351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b1…5b57backed Yes5c24,528$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c7b…f474backed Yes1c24,299$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.22557.3%4 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes1c23,499$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.49734.1%3 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2550…f978backed Yes6c22,414$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfac3…1b7bbacked Yes2c22,000$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.51020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-36.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes2c21,727$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.7921713.8%30 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-50.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd9b0…7c40backed Yes1c21,173$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071f…7c79backed Yes1c20,461$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0350…cbfabacked Yes1c20,443$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f9f…0f2fbacked Yes1c20,438$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x504c…e38abacked Yes1c20,349$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4218…f56ebacked Yes1c20,293$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ae…69edbacked Yes1c20,274$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0876…9ea0backed Yes1c20,272$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f12…7f30backed Yes1c20,229$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc5…7f2abacked Yes1c20,200$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5795…0aa1backed Yes1c20,199$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed35…bfecbacked Yes1c20,139$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe6a…172abacked Yes1c20,135$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f11…4b5fbacked Yes1c20,002$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes1c20,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7da3…529cbacked Yes1c18,953$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa26c…27eebacked Yes1c18,645$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cf…8647backed Yes2c18,533$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.53425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-65.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes1c17,806$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7324738.1%94 W · 153 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes1c16,789$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.5613024.6%32 W · 98 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c16,178$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.562430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e3…e78ebacked Yes5c15,819$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.15180%0 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7483…2302backed Yes1c15,653$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93f9…1307backed Yes1c15,403$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.8440%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcafb…3356backed Yes1c15,333$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed0e…b305backed Yes1c15,184$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.478921.3%19 W · 70 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12a7…399bbacked Yes1c15,000$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1354311.6%5 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-65%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes1c14,595$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.661508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc06a…0445backed Yes1c14,517$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7af6…83cabacked Yes6c14,286$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe377…f77abacked Yes2c14,028$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a2…26fbbacked Yes1c13,649$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c00…5d94backed Yes2c13,293$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.89323.1%1 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1342…0c12backed Yes1c12,479$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.