TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,117,541
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,133,921

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,117,541 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 428 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes1c756,552$6,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,189.551014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…68eebacked Yes1c314,013$1,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,736.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes1c283,214$2,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,570.3316226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes1c275,582$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,154.631414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-70%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b3f…f02abacked Yes1c233,421$2,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,948714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-74.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x766c…af97backed Yes1c176,008$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e2d…79e9backed Yes1c176,002$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f72…669bbacked Yes1c176,002$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c170,374$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.961769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c157,276$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.553930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-54.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9344…0151backed Yes1c152,739$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52a3…61b8backed Yes1c138,004$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes1c134,881$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.269240.2%37 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e61…9860backed Yes1c113,957$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.18166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes1c100,000$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.0430446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eaf…2155backed Yes1c100,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes1c93,570$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.1833328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bc1…6fe7backed Yes1c91,362$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.89333%1 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-94.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…3956backed Yes1c90,864$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b9…24e1backed Yes1c90,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501010%1 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4904…739abacked Yes1c88,001$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec34…e8d1backed Yes1c88,001$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa422…9bd5backed Yes0c85,994$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8538…cd51backed Yes1c79,012$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.09333%1 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23e4…2ce5backed Yes0c76,445$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b4…a691backed Yes0c76,445$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e16…e1c5backed Yes0c76,445$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9783…e483backed Yes0c76,394$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40cd…6784backed Yes0c76,394$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes1c76,131$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.72140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce95…67febacked Yes0c75,199$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dca…eec4backed Yes0c75,198$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb386…1f2cbacked Yes0c66,895$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b62…28e3backed Yes0c66,895$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdaa…cee5backed Yes0c66,895$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x157c…3815backed Yes0c66,895$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d34…b281backed Yes0c66,895$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe363…6a08backed Yes0c66,895$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb1…59fcbacked Yes0c66,845$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f31…412ebacked Yes0c66,845$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff6…72bdbacked Yes0c66,845$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb58…bfc5backed Yes0c66,845$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e6…a493backed Yes0c66,845$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79a9…7a2ebacked Yes0c66,845$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb378…d80bbacked Yes0c66,845$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95fc…4262backed Yes0c66,845$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20a1…fe10backed Yes0c62,667$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b66…9122backed Yes0c62,667$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a80…e5bebacked Yes0c62,667$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3985…54fcbacked Yes0c62,666$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x181b…4b3ebacked Yes0c62,666$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c68…f2b6backed Yes0c62,666$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d8…125bbacked Yes0c62,666$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d1c…f842backed Yes0c62,666$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf61…9c61backed Yes0c62,666$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c62,596$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.771061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8af4…5bafbacked Yes0c62,416$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe810…12b2backed Yes0c61,981$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45de…ca2abacked Yes0c61,835$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e65…a087backed Yes0c61,750$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c3…cc4fbacked Yes0c61,672$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe13b…5bc0backed Yes0c61,554$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d4…5fffbacked Yes0c61,128$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1004…845bbacked Yes0c61,122$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…d574backed Yes0c60,203$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes0c56,696$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.716541.5%27 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes1c56,426$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.962711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes1c53,607$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.643818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd1…776abacked Yes1c50,169$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d5…ff72backed Yes1c49,448$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e3…7a00backed Yes1c47,952$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes1c47,530$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.131811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes1c45,731$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.659724.7%24 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc551…cc68backed Yes1c45,549$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ff9…6478backed Yes1c45,463$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c79…1de0backed Yes1c45,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-78.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0983…7adbbacked Yes2c43,475$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d9…a398backed Yes1c41,399$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e17…bfb8backed Yes1c39,956$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb4…1b7fbacked Yes1c39,918$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad0…9a6abacked Yes1c38,788$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c35,603$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.12430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4cb…001bbacked Yes1c35,556$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes1c35,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+208.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…1de4backed Yes1c32,900$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.71147.9%9 W · 105 L-10.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-62.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes1c31,449$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.04734.1%3 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ea…e341backed Yes1c30,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x903c…b459backed Yes1c30,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69ea…ba4abacked Yes1c29,498$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.542842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2838…2dd9backed Yes1c28,413$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c7b…f474backed Yes1c26,650$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.85557.3%4 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe8…2cbabacked Yes0c26,111$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+4,066.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Yes1c25,821$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.214339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf0…1179backed Yes1c25,713$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.662740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x431e…2f16backed Yes1c25,266$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes1c23,000$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19428433.1%94 W · 190 L-0.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2654…fd65backed Yes1c22,565$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.83120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08a2…676ebacked Yes1c22,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes1c21,722$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505040%20 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…4a31backed Yes1c20,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.