TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,167,589
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,601,749

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,167,589 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 5,153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes21c696,658$146,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146,743.612711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes17c155,512$26,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,479.031809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3eb4…5821backed No75c132,500$99,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,861475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34e…895ebacked Yes11c124,307$13,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,182.232630.8%8 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+16.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ab7…7855backed Yes25c121,606$30,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,036.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Yes7c108,012$7,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,075.979949.5%49 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes11c106,949$12,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,080.139724.7%24 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6be…e346backed Yes21c84,861$18,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,030.361513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes15c80,000$12,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,356.0430446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5372…d2f9backed Yes20c76,302$15,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,367.58812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad3e…4422backed Yes23c71,740$16,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,185.193650%18 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b8…f4d8backed No75c66,500$49,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,6251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aef…dc53backed Yes25c66,500$16,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,62510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbffb…7756backed Yes25c66,000$16,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,23610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa9…7cabbacked Yes24c66,000$15,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,84010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15cd…ea2abacked No75c66,000$49,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,2361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f96…2326backed No76c66,000$50,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,8401100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Yes18c64,890$11,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,950.4411252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes12c61,266$7,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,384.115722.3%35 W · 122 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb43b…ea61backed Yes16c59,000$9,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,14510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes12c56,690$6,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,716.975724.6%14 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c26…4f84backed Yes18c56,407$10,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,018.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb2…dfddbacked Yes24c53,363$13,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,035.52742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+50.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac39…7cbabacked Yes18c53,201$9,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,338.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba61…5b0abacked Yes18c49,728$8,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,716.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…5102backed Yes23c47,380$10,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,687.91947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7616…cdfcbacked Yes12c46,600$5,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,611.78616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-64.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f86…26b8backed No79c46,596$36,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,822.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…d6eabacked Yes18c42,322$7,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,409.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes23c41,903$9,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,507.573818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Yes20c40,000$8,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,189.8514445.8%66 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b7…eb22backed No77c39,665$30,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,059.85540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3a8…92c6backed Yes7c38,528$2,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,505.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…6e56backed Yes18c36,324$6,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,472.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x068f…0084backed Yes17c35,427$6,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,180.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa845…2307backed Yes24c34,751$8,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,338.141850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecbd…21d7backed Yes18c33,181$5,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,881.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes19c32,683$6,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,350.5652828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3d7…096cbacked Yes18c31,803$5,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,673.830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a62…ae3abacked Yes18c31,756$5,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,602.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e6…cc3abacked Yes22c31,253$6,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,849.531070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x930c…71dabacked Yes18c30,959$5,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,558.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes21c30,230$6,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,239.371014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x94dc…c779backed Yes23c30,000$6,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,838.627853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f2…73b9backed Yes17c29,177$5,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,064.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8463…fccdbacked Yes17c29,140$5,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,060.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a12…01cebacked Yes7c28,659$1,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8814351.2%22 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x475d…6250backed Yes18c28,170$4,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,954.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9710…230dbacked Yes18c27,745$4,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,876.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea0…35eabacked Yes18c27,535$4,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,853.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf15…53c8backed Yes26c27,378$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0001631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc31d…80cabacked Yes17c26,492$4,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,617.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9abb…1494backed Yes18c25,457$4,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,557.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes17c25,039$4,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,192.427857.7%45 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x624a…901fbacked Yes20c24,313$4,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,798.691118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-65.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f62…eb45backed Yes6c24,190$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.81616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick5cpaid+188.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71a7…11cdbacked Yes18c24,118$4,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,267.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd18f…681ebacked Yes21c23,178$4,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,843.96128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes13c22,902$2,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.0619436.6%71 W · 123 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e2a…07bfbacked Yes20c22,872$4,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,465.8270%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29f9…65bbbacked Yes17c22,608$3,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,93330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes20c21,703$4,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,359.366832.4%22 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes21c21,694$4,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,554.517123.9%17 W · 54 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed No80c21,060$16,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,264.432744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes6c20,750$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.857541.3%31 W · 44 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13e8…ac29backed Yes16c20,570$3,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,245.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb40…7fa0backed Yes18c20,464$3,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,776.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee4…80f2backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c0e…1411backed Yes4c19,300$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.33831.6%12 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa40b…fcc0backed Yes6c19,023$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0d6…16e6backed Yes6c18,985$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe757…edfebacked Yes6c18,980$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Yes19c18,548$3,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,544.873976.9%30 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe4ea…7b9bbacked Yes12c18,490$2,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,295.13616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-70.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes19c18,005$3,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,421.4916226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c17,445$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.351969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes19c17,154$3,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,301.2123447.9%112 W · 122 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3924…8960backed Yes6c16,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc71…a20dbacked Yes6c16,667$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed7c…da06backed Yes18c15,239$2,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,756.084634.8%16 W · 30 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56a3…20a7backed Yes18c15,048$2,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,642.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae24…07c2backed Yes24c15,000$3,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,634.713941%16 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes20c14,727$2,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,994.721769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6839…b806backed Yes18c14,694$2,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,576.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Yes18c14,400$2,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,545.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d7c…bfa9backed No78c14,110$10,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,120.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Yes24c13,266$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,179.53119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.32per pick41cpaid-87.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc23f…c108backed Yes6c12,973$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.28633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc07…5e08backed Yes21c12,870$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,730.3911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0b…4f4dbacked Yes19c12,625$2,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,428.69342.9%1 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-78.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5532…bbe0backed Yes17c12,558$2,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,134.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca59…1963backed Yes17c12,130$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,062.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da2…9758backed Yes26c11,724$3,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,001.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd707…2121backed Yes12c11,326$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.7590%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8b1…6333backed No78c11,015$8,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,419.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8371…06febacked Yes6c11,006$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.354318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+68.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc82e…2284backed Yes14c10,978$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a2…6af8backed Yes19c10,331$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.8112570.4%88 W · 37 L+12.8wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+15.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8cfc…7f80backed Yes15c10,086$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.195628.6%16 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c5c…c842backed Yes11c10,018$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.022425%6 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.