TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe6be…e346

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
96
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 56 out of 100; worst World Politics at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-84%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,938Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,937.59
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$3,062Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+204.7%+$6,268.13
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$179.9
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$328.99
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$192.31
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$232.47
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.97
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$7,392Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,391.6
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$276.83
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$19.5
Will Stade Brestois win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$122.24
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$232.06
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$658Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$658.21
Will PSV beat Shakhtar Donetsk?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$16.75
Will Stuttgart beat Red Star Belgrade?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$13.9
All 19 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST1513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,609Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$1,609.22
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,497Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+616.2%+$9,222.52
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12,255Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+42.8%+$5,245.88
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$955Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$954.73
Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10.27
Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$277.23
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,404Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$1,403.64
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$10.78
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$158.24
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$18,030Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$18,030.36
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$64.7
Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$233.24
Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$44.86
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$53.85
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$115.96
All 15 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-72.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arsenal wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$3,495Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,495.47
Liverpool wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$96,996Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+99.8%+$96,819.22
Manchester City wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,843Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,842.87
Chelsea wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$813Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$812.68
Manchester United wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$30.74
Will Fulham win on 2024-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST-100%-$26.32
Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$12.08
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$11.2
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$15.4
Will Southampton vs. Liverpool end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$20.8
Will Man City win on 2024-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST-100%-$57
Will Everton vs. Brentford end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST+28.2%+$5.5
All 12 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-69.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+270.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$207.16
Will Barcelona win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,569Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+81.4%+$2,903.67
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$346.46
All 3 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$362Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$361.79
Will Max Verstappen win the Qatar Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+300%+$37.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2024, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the match between Croatia and Portugal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST+28.2%+$7.92
Will Netherlands beat Hungary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+38.9%+$59.83
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+72.4%+$42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+33.3%+$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
$MSTR added to Nasdaq 100?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST+29.7%+$31.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$36.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 17, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jones vs. Miocicbacked Miocic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$11.65
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.