Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Lazio beat Ajax?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02954918f3cebfc588c94ea5941a06d77f8335ebb444052dd1b854f53227fe26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 68c | 2,511$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.07 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 60c | 2,505$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.54 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 33c | 909.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.09 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 35c | 877.29$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.67 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 32c | 800$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…8222backed Yes | 57c | 800$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 67c | 704.8$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.21 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd95a…f689backed No | 46c | 649.22$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.06 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 33c | 604.66$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.27 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked No | 73c | 569$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 8c | 562.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2769…62b8backed Yes | 30c | 485.74$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3676…c975backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 295$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 29c | 290$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.9 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…2093backed No | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe763…3d69backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…d20ebacked Yes | 41c | 146.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 32c | 130$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed51…9147backed Yes | 33c | 125.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…c5c4backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…9829backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…5220backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 54c | 89.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…574fbacked Yes | 62c | 88.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…70f0backed Yes | 61c | 73.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed No | 68c | 65.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 68c | 59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…35c2backed Yes | 54c | 52.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…53c9backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…f999backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 37c | 28.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 27.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6be…e346backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lazio beat Ajax?this page
- Will Ajax beat Lazio?No won
- Will the match between Ajax and Lazio end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.