Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ajax beat Lazio?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ce55cf17c63347b252a899ba33cfd011ffba34cc0b60317146c658b59eb9426
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 59c | 1,433$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.08 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 40c | 1,361$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.25 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 40c | 902.27$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.8 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 79c | 896.58$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.55 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…9829backed Yes | 41c | 495.21$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed No | 75c | 430.83$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a627backed Yes | 42c | 172.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2452…4571backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…ee60backed No | 59c | 160.78$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8895…7673backed Yes | 12c | 137.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 13c | 135.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed No | 58c | 127.14$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…7bc3backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e3…4d2bbacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 42c | 109.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf2…2929backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…c5c4backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 57c | 92.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 73.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 43c | 67.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…004dbacked No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…574fbacked Yes | 36c | 40.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…5346backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Yes | 41c | 33.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a54…953abacked Yes | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 27.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 63c | 22.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe587…ce23backed No | 60c | 21.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ajax beat Lazio?this page
- Will Lazio beat Ajax?Yes won
- Will the match between Ajax and Lazio end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.