TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,965,016
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,642,110

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,965,016 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c1,116,027$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.621014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c218,424$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.81769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaba…8e59backed Yes3c216,539$5,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,623.4560%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x782f…f48ebacked Yes0c169,394$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1857…c0cebacked Yes0c150,903$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2789…bb02backed Yes1c83,554$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0065…56aabacked Yes0c57,825$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a3…9da0backed Yes0c51,700$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b9e…74aebacked Yes0c50,030$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.674621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x423a…4f1dbacked Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bfd…7f25backed Yes0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+66.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa825…0a4cbacked Yes0c48,333$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac60…aa7dbacked Yes0c47,032$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8ac…5674backed Yes0c46,350$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec1…bf03backed Yes0c44,797$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x946c…af0ebacked Yes0c41,032$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c39,901$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.032430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc009…4422backed Yes0c37,113$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c33,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33734.1%3 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda3…ffabbacked Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c27,750$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.651061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe54…41d6backed Yes5c26,056$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes1c26,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-93.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d06…d421backed Yes0c25,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99e1…d496backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb222…fe5bbacked Yes0c25,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e1…3743backed Yes0c21,718$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81b…b894backed Yes0c19,455$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.91333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe72d…c3b0backed Yes0c19,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd298…42aebacked Yes4c17,001$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.31714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-80.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f0d…29fcbacked Yes0c17,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9cb…8ac9backed Yes0c17,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8371…06febacked Yes6c16,406$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.454318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+68.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc86…1a74backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x553c…9c4cbacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f2b…ac5cbacked Yes0c14,667$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…51babacked Yes0c13,708$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.71616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x105c…83a3backed Yes0c11,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x596f…06e1backed Yes0c10,880$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x709f…1491backed Yes0c10,275$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c7b…f474backed Yes0c10,100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4557.3%4 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa3c…b2c1backed Yes5c9,848$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.021154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick33cpaid+40.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3753…dc42backed Yes4c9,649$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-65.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fe8…a323backed Yes0c8,930$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes4c8,853$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.931809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d06…f09bbacked Yes0c8,667$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa17d…832cbacked Yes0c8,570$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes3c7,300$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.95454.4%2 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-69.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9af5…5312backed Yes5c7,164$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3502623.1%6 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+77.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8958…a83ebacked Yes0c6,980$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89e3…e78ebacked Yes1c6,944$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.27180%0 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7350…3c71backed Yes0c6,873$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+118.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff5e…c265backed Yes0c6,650$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fb4…2794backed Yes0c6,403$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8114139%55 W · 86 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f9…b37abacked Yes0c6,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fce…ea0fbacked Yes0c5,762$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34f7…86e6backed Yes0c5,010$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e8…d1dbbacked Yes0c5,010$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68ca…43cdbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e3…ad70backed Yes3c3,923$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.52850%14 W · 14 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+98.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xda3e…f4b2backed Yes2c3,865$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes6c3,417$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.453141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes1c3,343$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.94508%4 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d18…9a5ebacked Yes1c3,334$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…a821backed Yes2c3,288$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9312842.2%54 W · 74 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe854…aa44backed Yes5c3,199$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8390%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9171…a0c6backed Yes3c3,110$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.243821.1%8 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd67a…eb69backed Yes4c3,103$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.081711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe841…0ce0backed Yes1c3,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3370%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c00…5d94backed Yes3c2,452$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.38323.1%1 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c2,384$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4952828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes1c1,930$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6580%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cbe…1c79backed Yes5c1,871$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.081154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+44.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79fb…b4aebacked Yes6c1,800$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2104…a495backed Yes3c1,602$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.091241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe634…eae3backed Yes4c1,112$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9940%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed Yes2c1,047$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9928337.8%107 W · 176 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked Yes5c972.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2efc…5686backed Yes2c820.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.414314%6 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick23cpaid+39.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes8c726.38$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.38749.5%7 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd695…850ebacked Yes4c675.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9770%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes5c622.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.46913%9 W · 60 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ed…be73backed Yes2c559.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e91…b801backed Yes5c525.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.725034%17 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18b8…21a1backed Yes2c523.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+747.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x47e3…a930backed Yes7c428.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-47.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe6be…e346backed Yes3c361.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.271513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes4c318$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.267123.9%17 W · 54 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Yes6c309$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2310246.1%47 W · 55 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.