TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Kirk Cousins win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,474,560
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$435,370

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,474,560 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c146,812$167 inLost-$167.181014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c121,496$176 inLost-$176.51769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c61,767$76 inLost-$76.452430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes0c57,597$58 inLost-$58.4941540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c18,592$87 inLost-$86.681061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c67…9ab6backed Yes0c12,670$13 inLost-$12.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab90…e314backed Yes0c12,667$25 inLost-$25.3380%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb0…8633backed Yes0c12,598$13 inLost-$12.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c12,000$22 inLost-$22734.1%3 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bda…13dabacked Yes0c11,600$12 inLost-$11.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e92…5558backed Yes0c11,001$11 inLost-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa59…2a8bbacked Yes0c10,600$11 inLost-$10.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4843…4fdcbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6063…03f6backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a39…958cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9252…45a8backed Yes0c8,000$16 inLost-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9893…4384backed Yes0c7,833$25 inLost-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x420e…d29bbacked Yes0c7,333$22 inLost-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34d4…8437backed Yes0c6,250$13 inLost-$12.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c66…bef0backed Yes0c6,056$12 inLost-$12.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec55…c179backed Yes0c6,008$18 inLost-$18.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes2c3,557$82 inLost-$82.471520%3 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60de…65eebacked Yes0c3,400$10 inLost-$10.2520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-73.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes2c2,259$42 inLost-$42.481809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Yes2c1,134$23 inLost-$22.893243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c1,025$14 inLost-$14.1452828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes2c1,001$21 inLost-$21.332045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.