TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will C.J. Stroud win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,926,196
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$501,954

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,926,196 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x884f…da42backed Yes0c450,018$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39b3…9738backed Yes0c427,072$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.0730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb42b…afe0backed Yes0c281,863$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.191010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-87%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4152…5daebacked Yes0c268,265$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.2770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c189,091$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.091014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6806…3624backed Yes0c141,513$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c121,785$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.641769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa23…8d7bbacked Yes0c66,755$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c46,384$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.082430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Yes0c45,520$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.049732%31 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d9…f5f5backed Yes0c38,235$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb08b…fbe9backed Yes0c32,031$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1979…df8cbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98ba…3e05backed Yes0c23,670$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ed…15a3backed Yes0c22,084$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefba…7c05backed Yes0c21,710$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf132…e72fbacked Yes0c21,261$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x723c…0d2bbacked Yes0c19,511$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50d4…b365backed Yes0c19,355$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c18,500$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.51061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e68…cefebacked Yes0c18,454$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31e7…c97abacked Yes0c18,146$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ebb…d4f8backed Yes0c18,020$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8203…0ac9backed Yes0c17,762$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5602…3e5bbacked Yes0c17,566$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7635…6ecebacked Yes0c17,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x288e…b10abacked Yes0c17,390$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaff…02c7backed Yes0c16,369$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x620d…9ce4backed Yes0c16,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a21…36d0backed Yes0c15,969$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98fb…393abacked Yes0c15,833$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe7…2db8backed Yes0c15,778$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84b8…217fbacked Yes0c15,750$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4df…308dbacked Yes0c15,485$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb363…dc5dbacked Yes0c15,290$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9128…0439backed Yes0c15,279$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c8…887dbacked Yes0c15,133$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcebe…bf6bbacked Yes0c15,049$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa353…188fbacked Yes0c14,587$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x196d…5805backed Yes0c14,443$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eae…4524backed Yes0c14,233$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d20…2308backed Yes0c13,770$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b3…bd99backed Yes0c13,729$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45f1…1b61backed Yes0c13,332$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f7…b63cbacked Yes0c13,284$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ec…4ac8backed Yes0c12,867$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9e3…266fbacked Yes0c12,543$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ee4…93a3backed Yes0c12,456$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68cb…08a8backed Yes0c12,009$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfebc…c7babacked Yes0c12,001$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1462…58febacked Yes0c11,853$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03d9…a572backed Yes0c11,754$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a5a…4716backed Yes0c11,734$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb103…e7bebacked Yes0c11,508$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd512…b885backed Yes0c11,210$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x966d…717bbacked Yes0c11,166$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d0…9f40backed Yes0c11,109$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x468c…935ebacked Yes0c11,100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad86…abdcbacked Yes0c10,900$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b81…e08abacked Yes0c10,900$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd02f…108cbacked Yes0c10,900$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36cc…e371backed Yes0c10,900$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f6…6fdcbacked Yes0c10,900$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60e3…43b9backed Yes0c10,797$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x504d…b544backed Yes0c10,726$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda8c…0160backed Yes0c10,700$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbe2…b926backed Yes0c10,597$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5eb…e454backed Yes0c10,455$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b2b…68afbacked Yes0c10,410$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc451…9dafbacked Yes0c10,400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc559…af62backed Yes0c10,400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd955…cefdbacked Yes0c10,384$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1864…7310backed Yes0c10,380$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd18…aae4backed Yes0c10,370$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x086f…9374backed Yes0c10,359$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c6…cd1abacked Yes0c10,359$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa35c…c7dfbacked Yes0c10,300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dd4…e1e6backed Yes0c10,200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x569b…abc5backed Yes0c10,158$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1429…63c3backed Yes0c10,122$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe793…ea16backed Yes0c10,100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42c…245abacked Yes0c10,009$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a00…ed53backed Yes0c10,005$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1480…b12dbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71de…230cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7d…bc36backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe92c…7f45backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0432…4287backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x465c…db7ebacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa564…78f7backed Yes0c9,876$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x028c…bc96backed Yes0c9,612$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3094…d7e1backed Yes0c9,263$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bce…00afbacked Yes0c9,257$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34c2…f6fbbacked Yes0c8,861$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.73368.3%3 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…a48dbacked Yes0c7,671$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb38…7935backed Yes0c7,408$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x596f…06e1backed Yes0c7,253$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e3…e78ebacked Yes1c6,916$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.24180%0 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c4b…2ce0backed Yes0c6,476$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8371…06febacked Yes8c6,238$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.634318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+68.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.