NFL · resolved market
Will Aaron Rodgers win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8965a43e19c3f5ca3e3f340ed14a18c0b47ec71283e00db546c9de0722bb0854
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,734,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,850,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,734,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 0c | 233,917$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.18 | 101 | 4%4 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 197,735$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.47 | 176 | 9.1%16 W · 160 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3908…ae89backed Yes | 0c | 167,045$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…a29ebacked Yes | 0c | 162,785$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d3…068cbacked Yes | 0c | 162,742$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…24efbacked Yes | 0c | 133,526$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a5…d969backed Yes | 0c | 127,232$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea0…f681backed Yes | 0c | 126,593$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…9d03backed Yes | 0c | 111,723$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286f…e056backed Yes | 0c | 109,320$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1079…8349backed Yes | 0c | 108,414$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…717cbacked Yes | 0c | 100,557$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…ff35backed Yes | 0c | 93,104$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…a88cbacked Yes | 0c | 90,225$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16a3…1b49backed Yes | 0c | 84,470$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 0c | 81,697$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 74,545$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…cbb0backed Yes | 0c | 51,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b1…657fbacked Yes | 0c | 46,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1a…904cbacked Yes | 0c | 45,747$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517c…f3dabacked Yes | 0c | 44,350$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf74…0fcabacked Yes | 0c | 41,175$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0a76backed Yes | 0c | 38,651$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…e314backed Yes | 0c | 36,920$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564d…57c7backed Yes | 0c | 33,339$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42b…afe0backed Yes | 0c | 29,415$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -87%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…e78ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,643$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfb…6f31backed Yes | 1c | 18,383$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…75ddbacked Yes | 0c | 18,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbde…5976backed Yes | 0c | 17,480$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…e957backed Yes | 0c | 17,480$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd917…7022backed Yes | 0c | 17,480$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf398…b14abacked Yes | 0c | 17,178$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185e…80c3backed Yes | 0c | 16,900$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 16,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 106 | 1.9%2 W · 104 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cc…2d97backed Yes | 0c | 15,169$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab6…8720backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c57…c39dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,528$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd28b…2e2dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,499$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328a…6b0bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,499$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…e405backed Yes | 0c | 11,470$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…ec1bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,470$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874c…f55fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,470$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215e…fafebacked Yes | 0c | 10,947$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…fbe9backed Yes | 0c | 10,816$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…157cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,806$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20cd…ef74backed Yes | 0c | 10,528$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8254…9a79backed Yes | 0c | 10,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b3…34b2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…ed2ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae6…21dbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf7…710bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…e807backed Yes | 0c | 6,321$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 0c | 6,302$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Yes | 4c | 5,900$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.64 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da9…4499backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Yes | 5c | 2,855$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.84 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2209…06d6backed Yes | 1c | 2,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064d…a0e4backed Yes | 4c | 1,390$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…46abbacked Yes | 4c | 1,270$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…862abacked Yes | 1c | 1,002$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e7…9a6fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…4d6abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 572.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 6c | 359.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c44…8abdbacked Yes | 6c | 263.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aaron Rodgers win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?this page
- Will Anthony Richardson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Brock Purdy win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will C.J. Stroud win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Caleb Williams win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will CeeDee Lamb win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Christian McCaffrey win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Dak Prescott win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Jalen Hurts win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Jared Goff win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Jordan Love win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?Yes won
- Will Justin Herbert win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Justin Jefferson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Kirk Cousins win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Kyler Murray win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Matthew Stafford win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Patrick Mahomes win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Trevor Lawrence win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Tua Tagovailoa win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will Tyreek Hill win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?No won
- Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.