TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Trevor Lawrence win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,114,808
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$685,968

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,114,808 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa569…24d3backed Yes0c477,091$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b28…4ffbbacked Yes0c459,420$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce9…b6b4backed Yes0c459,420$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c235,441$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.841014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c215,696$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.581769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c80,001$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.392430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes0c51,698$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.741540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18fe…47a2backed Yes0c49,500$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c48,491$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.981061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e7e…2d81backed Yes0c40,646$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf74…0fcabacked Yes0c40,645$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.29170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe608…b0fdbacked Yes0c40,560$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe72…f97bbacked Yes0c40,472$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ffe…5e6ebacked Yes0c38,970$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab8…1e44backed Yes0c38,970$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf35b…1448backed Yes0c37,668$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68c…9608backed Yes0c35,833$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbcd…b6d9backed Yes0c35,776$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9343…8edebacked Yes0c35,773$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9b…d661backed Yes0c35,643$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5539…1abbbacked Yes0c35,613$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…54dabacked Yes0c35,550$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73c…6db5backed Yes0c35,528$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b8…fb75backed Yes0c35,521$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6c…73c6backed Yes0c35,518$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42e5…73febacked Yes0c35,460$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…2b54backed Yes0c35,441$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc77…2ebebacked Yes0c35,096$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f79…3256backed Yes0c35,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x691b…7e01backed Yes0c34,994$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f3…8229backed Yes0c34,902$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ce…3811backed Yes0c32,341$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.34120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd80…8c7dbacked Yes0c32,191$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95d3…15fcbacked Yes0c31,720$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7306…3b55backed Yes0c30,670$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x710e…ea2abacked Yes0c30,655$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1cc…29f5backed Yes0c30,582$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4131…bfe9backed Yes0c30,514$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1832…a955backed Yes0c30,502$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ea…4992backed Yes0c30,141$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.14110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59cb…e1cebacked Yes0c27,171$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.51110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ee2…ebacbacked Yes0c27,031$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e9e…fff1backed Yes0c26,725$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1141…029ebacked Yes0c26,476$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2484…94c9backed Yes0c25,880$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1333…2f4dbacked Yes0c25,500$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea39…7821backed Yes0c25,046$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2727…a22bbacked Yes0c23,916$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8188…5e47backed Yes0c23,775$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b9c…0a4abacked Yes0c23,775$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1853…6a0bbacked Yes0c22,281$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.28110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f09…b474backed Yes0c22,262$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.26130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b3…ad89backed Yes0c21,606$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54aa…38ccbacked Yes0c21,231$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d9…e921backed Yes0c20,453$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc17b…dcffbacked Yes0c20,106$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.11110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f16…35e0backed Yes0c20,101$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick4cpaid-79.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1716…ab6ebacked Yes0c20,096$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd917…7022backed Yes0c19,777$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee7b…3502backed Yes0c19,410$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e42…0a06backed Yes0c19,270$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4a9…81cabacked Yes0c19,069$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.21110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8094…1665backed Yes0c18,984$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79d5…d2e0backed Yes0c18,875$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8265…8b0cbacked Yes0c18,333$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.33100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82d6…dca2backed Yes0c18,027$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d6…7d79backed Yes0c17,800$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f4…9584backed Yes0c17,780$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57f…2400backed Yes0c17,635$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f36…5adabacked Yes0c15,995$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.99812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-82.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbab4…fca1backed Yes0c15,700$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bf5…ee09backed Yes0c15,700$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a9…bdacbacked Yes0c15,700$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe42a…e777backed Yes0c15,615$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adb…2fe7backed Yes0c15,500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f6…dbe6backed Yes0c15,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2e…868bbacked Yes0c15,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…461cbacked Yes0c15,100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1653…5359backed Yes0c15,044$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb062…8637backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1a…4877backed Yes0c14,900$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa733…c1c8backed Yes0c14,800$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567f…bf24backed Yes0c14,800$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc316…2fa5backed Yes0c14,800$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb6a…a628backed Yes0c14,762$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.29120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8da…a61cbacked Yes0c14,600$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab4f…9542backed Yes0c14,600$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc7…5ddcbacked Yes0c14,600$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20dc…91cdbacked Yes0c14,600$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1aa…9a19backed Yes0c14,600$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e1c…b270backed Yes0c14,600$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x114e…74c7backed Yes0c14,600$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f50…3ad8backed Yes0c14,600$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7bd…8136backed Yes0c14,600$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e4a…f7c1backed Yes0c14,600$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb04…d3dbbacked Yes0c14,600$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7667…557bbacked Yes0c14,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f5a…9a29backed Yes0c14,100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8667…a0aabacked Yes0c14,100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa628…c468backed Yes0c14,072$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.