TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Justin Herbert win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,777,871
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$630,124

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,777,871 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c253,385$262 inLost-$261.981014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c101,604$127 inLost-$126.61769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c64,225$109 inLost-$108.512430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63f9…6530backed Yes0c50,235$101 inLost-$10110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd2…32bcbacked Yes1c27,913$312 inLost-$312.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda3…ffabbacked Yes0c27,500$55 inLost-$5530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd033…e0ffbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245c…bf57backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c1b…100abacked Yes0c24,590$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb42b…afe0backed Yes0c24,394$49 inLost-$48.791010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-87%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a92…5bc8backed Yes0c21,655$43 inLost-$43.3130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…8fe3backed Yes0c21,655$43 inLost-$43.3140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb6…ebaebacked Yes0c20,340$20 inLost-$20.34580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c18,471$65 inLost-$64.881061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4152…5daebacked Yes0c11,013$22 inLost-$22.0370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34c2…f6fbbacked Yes0c10,402$16 inLost-$15.94368.3%3 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e45…9037backed Yes0c9,297$19 inLost-$18.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bfc…6926backed Yes0c8,840$23 inLost-$22.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2868…c262backed Yes0c8,375$17 inLost-$16.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c8,214$16 inLost-$16.43667.6%5 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57da…c44cbacked Yes0c8,184$16 inLost-$16.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb38…7935backed Yes0c6,666$17 inLost-$16.6630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd314…2859backed Yes2c6,620$132 inLost-$132.41414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c6,100$11 inLost-$11.1734.1%3 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb363…dc5dbacked Yes0c5,400$11 inLost-$10.830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f04…6dd5backed Yes0c5,377$11 inLost-$10.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402a…22cfbacked Yes0c5,005$10 inLost-$10.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2072…1201backed Yes1c1,716$20 inLost-$20219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-64.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c1,601$15 inLost-$14.7352828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x330d…6174backed Yes3c1,467$50 inLost-$50140%0 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc462…5e7abacked Yes1c1,053$14 inLost-$13.691540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes1c964.74$13 inLost-$13.09454.4%2 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-69.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe8…2cbabacked Yes2c920.46$16 inLost-$15.93812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+4,066.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0d…fcc3backed Yes1c904.17$11 inLost-$10.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.