TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,852,908
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,810,960

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,852,908 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c838,722$2,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,817.111014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b9e…74aebacked Yes1c215,891$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.924621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked Yes1c158,562$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.87041.4%29 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c142,417$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.411769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1756…3c96backed Yes0c134,610$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd23…8e4fbacked Yes0c69,583$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc95…030fbacked Yes1c67,100$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c1f…f2fcbacked Yes0c59,381$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe8…2cbabacked Yes0c57,000$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+4,066.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x937d…0ceebacked Yes1c56,697$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a1…7a3ebacked Yes1c54,201$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1857…c0cebacked Yes0c51,077$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2470%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99e1…d496backed Yes0c48,743$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e78…cd39backed Yes1c46,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes0c45,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14514248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes0c42,320$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.681520%3 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc631…354dbacked Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c32,703$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.41734.1%3 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes1c31,000$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-93.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes0c28,000$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12519436.6%71 W · 123 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c7b…f474backed Yes0c28,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66557.3%4 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16cc…1900backed Yes0c22,570$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56f8…f92abacked Yes1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a5e…c869backed Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011738.5%45 W · 72 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7764…dc84backed Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd01…3c85backed Yes1c19,940$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c17,756$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.082430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f46…b560backed Yes0c16,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x596f…06e1backed Yes0c16,317$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a45…cf97backed Yes0c15,500$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f41…8d50backed Yes1c15,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6633…b4d8backed Yes0c11,667$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Yes0c11,447$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.45014%7 W · 43 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-71.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x946c…af0ebacked Yes0c11,250$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b02…7e50backed Yes0c10,667$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf266…5055backed Yes1c10,083$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40667.6%5 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b07…5de1backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202544%11 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+44.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x214d…8911backed Yes1c9,947$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.458446.4%39 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7268…c903backed Yes1c9,000$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-70.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa499…c79ebacked Yes1c8,750$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x207d…95d9backed Yes0c8,333$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa111…e105backed Yes0c8,333$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x527c…abc2backed Yes0c8,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid+164.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes5c7,864$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.69454.4%2 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-69.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f40…ba2ebacked Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cf0…726ebacked Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94e9…0948backed Yes1c7,078$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab80…41b6backed Yes1c6,938$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x603b…7e65backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e2…aae9backed Yes1c6,647$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.88333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes11c6,574$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.341809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes0c6,500$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.527835.3%98 W · 180 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79a7…2adabacked Yes0c6,333$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd67a…eb69backed Yes1c6,254$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c6,248$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.7652828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1db1…35a9backed Yes12c5,870$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.875536.4%20 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Yes0c5,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.577052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6be…e346backed Yes5c5,336$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.231513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11cb…2c6bbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc628…6816backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd56d…de17backed Yes4c4,998$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.17540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe250…1f59backed Yes1c4,986$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e3…5ac2backed Yes0c4,750$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-53.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes3c4,526$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.821061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2550…ea63backed Yes1c4,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e3…ad70backed Yes4c4,478$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.582850%14 W · 14 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+98.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xbaff…6078backed Yes0c4,290$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc90…6eb4backed Yes3c4,133$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140130%0 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b93…8a25backed Yes0c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes14c4,000$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.1119638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb23b…e0ebbacked Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadf3…77bdbacked Yes0c3,750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe54…41d6backed Yes5c3,675$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes0c3,650$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.951969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda75…cad6backed Yes1c3,600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x449a…1507backed Yes1c3,600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fb4…2794backed Yes3c3,489$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2214139%55 W · 86 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0744…061fbacked Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe996…7675backed Yes15c2,943$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1984…241ebacked Yes1c2,857$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.146155.7%34 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e60…7a8bbacked Yes0c2,834$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x832f…7c0bbacked Yes1c2,800$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaba…8e59backed Yes4c2,570$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2960%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes1c2,437$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0280%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedaa…2f33backed Yes4c2,366$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66dd…4f0bbacked Yes1c2,203$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d59…7b3abacked Yes1c2,200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Yes1c2,111$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1617548%84 W · 91 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1027…3758backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0585…8c25backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ad2…31b5backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5107…34dabacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2104…a495backed Yes7c1,999$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.271241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c00…6361backed Yes8c1,949$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e3…c624backed Yes4c1,846$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b6…a862backed Yes3c1,370$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes3c1,268$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1241540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d2…3ecbbacked Yes1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.