TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,605,358
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,372,511

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,605,358 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa49b…4c40backed No16c193,195$31,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,469.112516%4 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No25c79,762$19,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,657.816035%21 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No23c78,791$18,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,289.541936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked No12c73,551$8,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,728.011020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-71%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No11c70,481$7,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,867.95616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+928.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No0c65,800$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.285111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No22c60,452$13,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,187.012433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a74…3b98backed Yes79c58,333$45,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,475.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c74…cc9fbacked No1c58,000$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No27c56,876$15,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,571.925433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed No20c50,733$10,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,364.381968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No1c48,969$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.011030%3 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+1,501.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No19c48,638$9,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,322.533737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes73c46,341$34,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,308.033941%16 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6919…5effbacked Yes76c44,839$33,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,972.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e78…5f8ebacked Yes77c41,104$31,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,471.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes76c37,481$28,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,949.3615150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No26c36,447$9,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,399.64936.7%18 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No31c35,424$10,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,979.785145.1%23 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+103%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No3c34,743$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.42452.2%1 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick9cpaid+90.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd673…0c20backed No1c33,100$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331425%1 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick1cpaid+2,677.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No27c32,634$8,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,778.071520%3 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked No9c31,730$2,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,704.221758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No23c28,608$6,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,462.071338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-43.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked No26c28,402$7,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,462.474242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cdf…c324backed Yes80c27,934$22,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,642.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No22c27,173$5,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,891.561250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x063d…3567backed No29c26,990$7,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,787.071040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No24c26,956$6,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,423.354037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No5c25,220$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.383525.7%9 W · 26 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+300.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed No7c25,033$1,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,732.49156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+326.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked No28c23,530$6,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,660.3460%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes76c23,272$17,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,585.354650%23 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes71c23,004$16,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,558.984141.5%17 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76ae…f66dbacked No4c22,758$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b7…b5dabacked No29c21,973$6,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,407.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c8…73cebacked Yes69c20,549$14,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,470.211968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b86…73ddbacked Yes77c20,010$15,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,616.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+67%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes77c20,005$15,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,592.57650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No22c19,109$4,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,188.351936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+480.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x275e…a8ffbacked No1c18,684$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked No25c17,737$4,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,445.17560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No21c17,321$3,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,580.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No23c16,707$3,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,890.3116833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc822…c185backed No22c16,665$3,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,702.14616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-75.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No24c16,500$3,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,909.991735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No25c16,116$4,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,078.851637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1751…72d6backed No25c16,111$3,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,976.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes74c15,824$11,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,089.541070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes75c14,969$11,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,773.711090%9 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick68cpaid+28.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12b6…9fd7backed Yes69c14,360$9,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,509.24633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-43%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed No27c14,117$3,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,792.19825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked No18c13,973$2,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,510.78633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes78c13,594$10,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,020.922055%11 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+63.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6033…bbf8backed Yes76c13,239$10,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,224.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6253…20a6backed Yes76c13,221$10,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,172.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1da…8f6abacked Yes73c12,855$9,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,464.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No2c12,500$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.5442.3%1 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid+96.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92a1…301ebacked Yes79c12,170$9,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,555.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee63…07a4backed No26c11,965$3,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,148.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No26c11,401$2,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,914.585824.1%14 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed No18c11,352$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,098.73425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e71…ad34backed Yes75c11,060$8,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,786.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No22c10,631$2,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,343.084139%16 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No12c10,212$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.58296.9%2 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-80.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb9c1…c1b8backed No3c10,095$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed No33c10,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,300862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No25c10,000$2,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,533.752152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Yes78c10,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked No24c10,000$2,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4051145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2755…5016backed Yes71c10,000$7,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9001631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes70c9,981$6,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,029.781533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No27c9,900$2,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,696.99850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-33.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked No26c9,749$2,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,518.141414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-43.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked No21c9,703$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.291154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+102.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No20c9,370$1,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,917.861612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-83.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No25c9,286$2,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,321.564835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x241f…3143backed No26c9,056$2,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,322.721346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No6c8,393$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.163915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes69c8,389$5,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,611.253850%19 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5fe…e320backed No26c8,223$2,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,103.1520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-74.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Yes79c8,151$6,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,693.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked No5c8,083$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.1150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ba…dfbbbacked No25c8,034$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,986.21333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ca…e25abacked Yes75c7,945$5,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,969.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b6…a912backed Yes76c7,850$5,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,863.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed No0c7,361$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-89.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4755…20fdbacked No26c7,254$1,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.83450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes71c7,000$4,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.12966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No31c6,944$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.861154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes74c6,744$4,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,745.345234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x680d…58fcbacked Yes77c6,707$5,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,562.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x926c…95cebacked Yes69c6,536$4,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.631060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed No27c6,516$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,763.611020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-72.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No20c6,179$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.695540%22 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+92.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x456a…741bbacked Yes77c6,156$4,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ad…b45bbacked No2c6,000$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e02…817ebacked No27c5,877$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,588.33825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x235c…ba38backed Yes77c5,811$4,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed Yes77c5,500$4,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2702100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+137.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.